Isinqumo se-IEA: I-China njenge-Global Catalyst yokusheshisa ukwamukelwa kwezimoto zikagesi

Ukuhlaziya Isinqumo Samasu Se-International Energy Agency Mayelana Nendima Ebalulekile YaseShayina Njengesisusa Esinqumayo Somhlaba Wonke Sokusheshisa Ukwamukelwa Kwezimoto Zikagesi kanye Nokuguqulwa Okuphumelayo Kwezindlela Zokusetshenziswa Kwamandla Emhlabeni Wonke

1. Isingeniso: Isikhathi Sokugujwa Kwamanzi se-IEA sika-2026

I-International Energy Agency (IEA), ebilokhu ibhekwa njengomlamuli womhlaba wonke wemikhuba yamandla kanye nokuhlaziywa kwenqubomgomo, ikhiphe umbiko wayo ocacile othi “Global EV Outlook 2026″ onesiphetho esiye sazwakala kuwo wonke amadolobha amakhulu kanye negumbi lebhodi lezinkampani: IShayina isibe ngokusemthethweni “iGlobal Catalyst” yokusheshisa ukwamukelwa kwezimoto zikagesi (EV).

Sekuyiminyaka eminingi, i-IEA ilandelela ukwanda okuqhubekayo kokuhamba kukagesi, kodwa umbiko ka-2026 uphawula ushintsho endleleni ozwakala ngayo. Akusekho nje ukubuka iShayina njengomholi ngokwayo; ikhomba iShayina njengenjini eyinhloko eqhuba ukuguquka komhlaba wonke ukusuka enjinini yokushisa yangaphakathi (ICE). Ngokusho kwe-IEA, ngaphandle kobukhulu, ukusungula izinto ezintsha, kanye nokunciphisa izindleko okufezwe umkhakha wezimoto waseShayina, umgomo womhlaba wonke wokufinyelela ukukhishwa kwegesi okungenayo i-net-zero ngo-2050 ubungeke ufinyelelwe.

Lesi sihloko sinikeza ukuhlaziywa okujulile esinqumweni se-IEA. Sizohlola ukuthi impumelelo yasekhaya yaseShayina yehlise kanjani ijika lezindleko zomhlaba wonke zamabhethri, ukuthi uhlaka lwayo lwenqubomgomo luye lwaba kanjani umhlahlandlela wezinye izizwe, kanye nemiphumela yobuchwepheshe kanye neyezwe yale "Nkathi Yomsebenzi." Ngaphezu kwalokho, sizohlola idatha ye-IEA ngokuphepha kwamandla, okubonisa ukuthi ukwamukelwa kwe-EV okuholwa yiShayina kushintsha kanjani ngokuyisisekelo isidingo sikawoyela emhlabeni wonke futhi kubumba kabusha izinto eziza kuqala zeqhinga lezizwe ezikhiqiza amandla kanye nezisebenzisa amandla.

2. Incazelo ethi “I-Catalyst”: Umnotho Wezinga Lomhlaba Wonke

Isici esibaluleke kakhulu sesinqumo se-IEA umqondo weShayina njengesisusa sezindleko. Ezweni lobuchwepheshe, isikali yisona sizathu esiyinhloko sokukwazi ukukhokhela, futhi iShayina inikeze leso sikali ezingeni elingakaze libonwe ngaphambili.

2.1 Ukwehlisa Iphansi Lezindleko Zebhethri

Ibhethri liyisici esibiza kakhulu se-EV. Umbiko we-IEA uqokomisa ukuthi ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza kwaseShayina kwehlise amanani ebhethri angaphansi kuka-$100/kWh kuzo zonke izinhlobo eziningi ze-chemistry—okuwumkhawulo osekuyisikhathi eside ubhekwa “njengephuzu lokulinganisa” intengo nezimoto ze-ICE.

• I-LFP Multiplier:Ubuchwepheshe baseShayina kanye nokukhiqizwa ngobuningi kwamabhethri e-Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) kube yimbangela eyinhloko yalokhu kunciphisa izindleko. Ngokufakazela ukuthi i-LFP ingahlangabezana nezidingo zobubanzi kanye nokusebenza komthengi ojwayelekile, izinkampani zaseShayina zaphoqa imboni yomhlaba wonke ukuthi iphinde ihlole ukuthembela kwayo kumakhemikhali abiza kakhulu asekelwe ku-nickel kanye ne-cobalt.
• Inzuzo Yomhlaba Wonke:Lokhu kunciphisa izindleko akugcini eShayina kuphela. Ngokuthumela amaseli nezingxenye kwamanye amazwe, nangokubeka izinga eliphansi lentengo yomhlaba wonke, izinkampani zaseShayina zivumele izinkampani ze-OEM zaseNtshonalanga nezaseJapane ukuthi zinikeze ama-EV ancintisanayo kakhulu kunalawo abengenzeka ezweni elingenawo umncintiswano waseShayina.

2.2 “Umphumela We-Flywheel” Wengqalasizinda

I-IEA igcizelela ukuthi indima yeShayina njenge-catalyst imayelana nengqalasizinda njengoba imayelana nezimoto.

• Ukuhlala Ukhona Njengomshayeli:Njengoba sekunezinqwaba zokushaja zomphakathi ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezine ekupheleni kuka-2025, iShayina ikhombisile ukuthi ukwamukelwa kabanzi akunakwenzeka ngaphandle kwenethiwekhi yokushaja ebonakalayo, ethembekile, nejwayelekile.
• Ipulani Yengqalasizinda:I-IEA ikhomba isu laseShayina “lokuhola okulinganiselwe”—lapho ingqalasizinda yokushaja yakhiwe khona ngaphambi kancane kwesidingo semakethe—njengendlela ephumelela kakhulu yokuqeda ukukhathazeka ngezindawo ezikude nokusheshisa ukuguquka. Amazwe amaningi aseYurophu naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia manje asebenzisa le ndlela eqanjwe yiShayina.

3. Izilinganiso Zokungena Emakethe: Ukwehlukahluka Komhlaba Wonke

Idatha ye-IEA yango-2026 ikhombisa umehluko othakazelisayo endleleni izifunda ezahlukene ezisabela ngayo ku-"China Catalyst."

3.1 IShayina: Umkhawulo ongu-50%

Ngo-2026, iShayina ifinyelele ingqophamlando lapho ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha ezingaphezu kuka-50% kuyizimoto ezintsha zamandla (ama-NEV). Lokhu kwamukelwa okusheshayo kuwubufakazi bomqondo olandelwa yiwo wonke umhlaba. I-IEA iphawula ukuthi lolu shintsho lwenzeke ngokushesha eShayina kunanoma yiluphi ushintsho lobuchwepheshe lwangaphambilini emlandweni wezimoto.

3.2 I-European Union: Ishesha Naphezu Kweziphepho Ezinkulu

I-EU isalokhu iyimakethe yesibili ngobukhulu yezimoto ze-EV, kanti amazinga okwamukelwa azungeze ama-25-30% ngo-2026. Isinqumo se-IEA sibonisa ukuthi yize i-EU inabakhiqizi bayo basekhaya abanamandla, ukuba khona kwamamodeli aseShayina angabizi kuye kwasebenza “njengesikhuthazo sokuncintisana,” okuphoqa imikhiqizo yaseYurophu efana neVolkswagen neRenault ukuthi isheshise izinhlelo zayo zezimoto ze-EV zokuvikela isabelo sayo semakethe.

3.3 I-United States: Indlu Enamandla Esalele emuva

Izinga lokwamukelwa kwe-US likhuphuka cishe ngo-12-15% ngo-2026. I-IEA ithi lokhu kubangelwa yinhlanganisela yamanani aphansi kaphethiloli, ukuntuleka kwengqalasizinda yokushaja ezindaweni eziphakathi nentshonalanga kanye nezasemakhaya, kanye nezinqubomgomo zokuhweba ezikhawulele ukungena kwama-EV aseShayina ashibhile. Kodwa-ke, umbiko uphakamisa ukuthi i-"China Catalyst" isazwakala ngochungechunge lokuhlinzeka, njengoba izitshalo zamabhethri ezise-US zithembele kakhulu kubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza baseShayina kanye nemishini.

4. Inqubomgomo Njengepulani: Umthelela Womhlaba Wonke “Wemodeli YaseShayina”

Ukuhlaziywa kwe-IEA kudlulela ngale kwamandla emakethe ukuze kuhlolwe izinto ezintsha zenqubomgomo iShayina ezithumele emhlabeni.

4.1 Uhlelo Lwesikweletu lwe-NEV

Uhlelo lwe-“Parallel Management” lwaseShayina (uhlelo lwe-Dual-Credit) lucashunwa yi-IEA njengesigaba esiyinhloko senqubomgomo yezimboni. Ngokuyalela iphesenti lokukhiqiza ukuthi lingabi yi-zero-emission, uhulumeni waseShayina waphoqa ukusungula izinto ezintsha futhi waqinisekisa ukutholakala okuqhubekayo kwama-EV. Izinhlobo zalolu hlelo manje sezixoxwa ngazo emazweni amaningana asafufusa njengoba befuna ukwakha izimboni zabo ze-EV.

4.2 Izidingo Zokukhiqiza Ezisendaweni

Isidingo sokuqala saseShayina sokuba izinkampani zakwamanye amazwe zakhe ama-joint venture sasiphikisana, kodwa ngo-2026, sibhekwa yizizwe ezifana ne-Indonesia, iBrazil, neThailand njengesibonelo sokukhiqiza "Okunenani Elongeziwe". Lawa mazwe manje adinga izinkampani zaseShayina ze-EV ukuthi zakhe izimboni zendawo futhi zabelane ngobuchwepheshe ukuze zifinyelele emakethe, okuwukuvela ngqo kwesu elasetshenziswa yiShayina eminyakeni eyishumi edlule.

5. Isiphindaphindi Sochungechunge Lokunikezela: Kuzuzisa Ama-OEM Omhlaba Wonke

Mhlawumbe ingxenye emangazayo kakhulu yesinqumo se-IEA ukuvuma ukuthi ukubusa kwamaShayina empelenikuyasizaAbenzi bezimoto baseNtshonalanga ekushintsheni kwabo.

5.1 “I-Hardware-as-a-Service” Yemikhiqizo Yomhlaba Wonke

I-IEA iphawula ukuthi cishe yonke i-OEM enkulu yomhlaba wonke—kusukela ku-Tesla kanye ne-Ford kuya ku-Mercedes-Benz—ihlanganiswe nochungechunge lokuphakelwa kwempahla lwaseShayina.

• Amapulatifomu Ahlanganyelwe:Umkhuba wemikhiqizo yaseNtshonalanga esebenzisa amapulatifomu aseShayina (isib. iVolkswagen esebenzisa ipulatifomu ye-XPENG, noma iToyota esebenzisa ubuchwepheshe bebhethri nezimoto ze-BYD) uchazwa yi-IEA njengempendulo esebenzayo endimeni yaseShayina "njengeSisekelo Sobuchwepheshe" sale mboni.
• Ukwabelana Ngezindleko:Ngokusebenzisa inani elikhulu lemakethe yaseShayina, imikhiqizo yomhlaba wonke ingafinyelela umnotho omkhulu obekungenakwenzeka ukube ithembele kuphela ezimakethe zayo ezincane zasekhaya.

5.2 Ukuqina Kwesistimu Yezinto Eziphilayo Yebhethri

Umbiko we-IEA uthi nakuba "ukususa ingozi" kuyisihloko esivamile sezepolitiki, iqiniso elingokoqobo lochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwebhethri ngo-2026 lenza ukuhlukanisa ngokuphelele kube nzima kakhulu. Indima yaseShayina ekucwengisiseni u-60% we-lithium yomhlaba kanye no-90% we-graphite yayo yenza kube "yi-Linchpin" yokukhiqizwa kwe-EV yomhlaba wonke. Isinqumo se-IEA sibonisa ukuthi umgomo akufanele ube ukuhlukaniswa neShayina, kodwa kunalokho ukwakha uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa komhlaba oluhlukahlukene olusasebenzisa ubuchwepheshe baseShayina.

(Kuzoqhubeka esigabeni esilandelayo nge-Energy Security, Technical Base, kanye ne-IEA's 2030 Roadmap…)

6. Umbono Wokuphepha Kwamandla: Ukuchaza Kabusha Amandla Omhlaba Wonke

Ukuhlaziywa komthelela ojulile kwe-IEA kugxile endleleni ukwamukelwa kwe-EV eholwa yiShayina okushintsha ngayo ngokuyisisekelo ibhalansi yamandla yomhlaba wonke. Isinqumo sicacile: Ama-EV ayizikhali eziphumelela kakhulu ekulweni nokuthembela ku-oyili.

6.1 Ukususa I-Barrel: Ukwehla Kwesidingo Sikawoyela Wezokuthutha Emgwaqweni

Umbiko ka-2026 unikeza idatha emangalisayo mayelana nokufuduka kukawoyela.

• Amamethrikhi evolumu:Ngo-2026, imikhumbi yezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni wonke (eholwa yinani elikhulu lasekhaya laseShayina) izosusa imiphongolo kawoyela engaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-2.5 ngosuku. Okokuqala ngqa, i-IEA ibona "isiqongo nesiphezulu" esicacile sesidingo sikawoyela emhlabeni wonke sokuthuthwa kwabagibeli emgwaqweni.
• Isici SaseShayina:Ngaphezu kwama-50% alokhu kufuduka kwenzeka ngaphakathi eShayina. Lokhu kunemiphumela ebalulekile ekuphepheni kwamandla kweShayina, kunciphisa ukuthembela kwayo emizileni kawoyela olwandle esengozini (njengeStrait of Malacca) futhi kuthuthukisa ibhalansi yayo yokuhweba.

6.2 Izimali Ezigciniwe Ezibalulekile kanye neGridi Njengebhethri

Isinqumo se-IEA sikhomba uhlobo olusha lokuphepha kwamandla: "i-Strategic Electric Reserve."

• Ukuqina kwe-V2G kanye neGridi:Njengoba izigidi zama-EV zixhunywe kugridi, zisebenza njengebhethri elikhulu, elisabalele. I-IEA iqokomisa ubuholi bokuqala baseShayina ezinhlelweni zokuhlola ze-Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) njengesibonelo sendlela amazwe angasingatha ngayo ukuhlangana kwamandla avuselelekayo.
• Ukushintsha kusuka kuma-molecule kuya kuma-electron:Ukuphepha kwamandla akuseyona nje into yokuvikela amasimu kawoyela; kumayelana nokuvikela amaminerali amabhethri kanye nokuqina kwegridi kagesi. I-IEA ithi ukuqala kweShayina phambili kuzo zombili lezi zindawo kuyinike "i-First Mover Advantage" ezinye izizwe ezizama ukuyilingisa manje.

7. Isisekelo Sobuchwepheshe: Ukuthunyelwa Kwamazinga Nobuhlakani Kwamanye Amazwe

Indima yeShayina njenge-catalyst ayigcini nje ngobuningi bezimoto, kodwa futhi imayelana “noLimi” lwenkathi kagesi.

7.1 Izindinganiso Zokushaja Nokusebenzisana Komhlaba Wonke

Isinqumo se-IEA siyavuma ukuthi impi mayelana nezindinganiso zokushaja (GB/T vs. CCS vs. NACS) ithonywa kakhulu ukuthunyelwa kwehadiwe yiShayina.

• Ukusebenzisana kwe-Hardware-Software:Uma izinkampani zaseShayina ezifana neTeison zithumela iziteshi zokushaja eYurophu noma eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, azigcini nje ngokuthengisa ihadiwe; zithumela izinqubo zesofthiwe (njenge-OCPP 2.0.1) kanye nokuhlangenwe nakho komsebenzisi okuye kwathuthukiswa emakethe ye-EV edinga kakhulu emhlabeni.
• Ukwenza lula ulwazi lomsebenzisi:Umbiko we-IEA udumisa i-"Plug & Charge" kanye nezinhlelo zokukhokha ezihlanganisiwe ezasungulwa eShayina, uphawula ukuthi lezi zisekelo zobuchwepheshe ziyasetshenziswa emhlabeni wonke ukuze ubunikazi be-EV bube lula njengokusebenzisa i-smartphone.

7.2 Ipharadayimu Yemoto Echazwe Isofthiwe (SDV)

I-IEA ikhomba iShayina njengomholi “kuBuhlakaniphi” bezimoto zomoya.

• Ama-Cockpits Ahlakaniphile Njengendinganiso:Lesi sinqumo siphawula ukuthi ama-EV aseShayina abeke indinganiso entsha yomhlaba wonke yokuthi ingaphakathi lemoto kufanele libe njani. Izici ezifana nokulawulwa kwezwi okuqhutshwa yi-AI, izikrini ezinkulu ezisebenzisanayo, kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwamafu okungenamthungo akusezona izinto zokunethezeka; kungamathemba abekwe yimakethe yaseShayina.
• I-OTA njengegazi Lokuphila:Umbiko uqokomisa ukuthi ikhono lokuvuselela ububanzi bemoto, ukusebenza kwayo, kanye nezici zokuphepha emoyeni (i-OTA) liyisisekelo sobuchwepheshe izinkampani zaseShayina ezisifundile, okunciphisa kakhulu "ukwehla kwenani lobuchwepheshe" okuhlupha izimoto ze-ICE zendabuko.

8. Ukungezwani Kwezepolitiki Nezindawo vs. Imigomo Yesimo Sezulu: Umthetho Wokulinganisela we-IEA

Umbiko we-IEA awugwemi ukungqubuzana phakathi kwenqubomgomo yokuhweba kanye nesidingo semvelo.

8.1 “Impi Yokuhweba Okuluhlaza”

Isinqumo se-IEA siphakamisa ukuthi ukufakwa kwentela kuma-EV aseShayina (njengase-EU nase-US) kudala "i-Green Paradox."

• Izindleko vs. Isivinini:Izinyathelo zokuvikela zingase zisindise imisebenzi yasekhaya esikhathini esifushane, kodwa zandisa izindleko zama-EV kubathengi futhi zehlisa izinga lokwamukelwa, okwenza kube nzima ukuhlangabezana nemigomo yesimo sezulu.
• Isincomo se-IEA:I-Ejensi ifuna “Umncintiswano Wokubambisana,” lapho izizwe zincintisana khona ukwakha ama-EV amahle kakhulu ngenkathi zigcina izintambo zokuhlinzeka ezivulekile zezimbiwa ezibalulekile kanye nobuchwepheshe.

8.2 INingizimu Yomhlaba Wonke kanye “Nokudluliselwa Kobuchwepheshe”

I-IEA iqokomisa indima yeShayina “ekususweni kwegesi emkhathini kwezwe elithuthukayo.”

• Ukuthengeka Kwemakethe Esafufusa:Ezifundeni ezifana neNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, i-Afrika, kanye neLatin America, ama-EV aseNtshonalanga avame ukubiza kakhulu. I-IEA iphawula ukuthi imikhiqizo yaseShayina ihlinzeka ngamamodeli angabizi azovumela la mazwe ukuthi adlule "esigabeni se-ICE" sentuthuko, aqhubekele ngqo ekuhambeni kukagesi.
• Amaketanga Enani Asendaweni:Lesi sinqumo sigcizelela ukubaluleka kwezinkampani zaseShayina ezakha amafektri kulezi zifunda, zidale imisebenzi futhi zidlulisele ulwazi, okuqinisa umphumela we-“EV Catalyst” womhlaba wonke.

9. Ukusimama kanye nokuhlaziywa komjikelezo wokuphila (LCA)

Ingxenye ebalulekile yesinqumo se-IEA sango-2026 ukujula komthelela wemvelo wama-EV akhiqizwa eShayina.

9.1 Isinyathelo “se-Zero-Carbon Factory”

Umbiko we-IEA unikeza idatha ekhombisa ukuthi amandla ekhabhoni okukhiqizwa kwe-EV yaseShayina ehla ngokushesha.

• Amandla Aluhlaza Okukhiqiza:Izinkampani ezinkulu zamabhethri zaseShayina ezifana ne-CATL kanye ne-BYD ziyaqhubeka nokunikeza amandla amafektri azo amakhulu ngamandla omoya kanye nelanga endaweni. I-IEA iphawula ukuthi ezinye zalezi zikhungo manje sezifinyelela isimo se-"Net-Zero", okunciphisa impikiswano yokuthi ama-EV aseShayina "amane nje athutha ukukhishwa kwegesi kusuka emthonjeni wangemuva kuya endaweni yokubhema."
• Ukusebenza Kahle Kwezinto Ezibonakalayo:Intuthuko ekusetshenzisweni kabusha kanye nokutholwa kwezimbiwa ezibalulekile eShayina igqanyiswe njengesisekelo sobuchwepheshe ehlisa umthelela wemvelo wemoto ngayinye ekhiqizwayo.

9.2 “Iphasiphothi Yebhethri” kanye Nokubonakala

Isinqumo se-IEA sisekela ukuqaliswa komhlaba wonke kwe-“Battery Passport”—i-digital twin yebhethri ngalinye elilandelela imvelaphi yalo, i-carbon footprint, kanye nokuqukethwe okuphinde kwasetshenziswa.

• Ukubeka Izindinganiso Zomhlaba Wonke:Umbiko uphawula ukuthi izinkampani zaseShayina zingabaqapheli ekuqaleni kwala mathuluzi okubonisa izinto obala, okuzoba yinto ebalulekile ekugcineni ukufinyelela emakethe e-EU naseNyakatho Melika njengoba imithetho emisha yezemvelo iqala ukusebenza.

(Ukuqhubeka nokujula okwengeziwe: I-Strategic Roadmap ye-IEA 2026-2035, Umthelela Wezomnotho Omkhulu, kanye Nesinqumo Sokugcina…)

10. Izimo ze-IEA's STEPS kanye ne-APS: Indima yeShayina ku-Global Roadmap

Umbiko we-IEA ka-2026 usebenzisa izimo ezimbili eziyinhloko ukubikezela ikusasa lokuguquka kwamandla: Isimo Sezinqubomgomo Ezichaziwe (STEPS) kanye Nesimo Sezithembiso Ezimenyezelwe (APS). Kuzo zombili, iShayina iyisihluthulelo.

10.1 Isimo Sezinyathelo: Isisekelo Sokubusa

Esimweni se-STEPS, esibheka okuzokwenzeka ngokusekelwe ezinqubweni zamanje kuphela, i-IEA ibikezela ukuthi iShayina izoqhubeka nokubala ngaphezu kwama-50% esitokweni se-EV somhlaba wonke kuze kube okungenani ngo-2030.

• Izinga Lokwamukelwa “Kwemvelo”:Umbiko uthi ngisho noma kungekho zikhuthazo ezintsha, umfutho wokukhiqiza waseShayina kanye nokuncintisana kwezimoto zawo ngezindleko kuzoqhuba ushintsho "lwemvelo" ezimakethe ezisafufusa.
• Indima Yabagibeli Abanezinhlungu Ezimbili Nezintathu:Isinqumo se-IEA sigcizelela ukuthi indima yeShayina njengesisusa yaqala ngokufakwa kukagesi kwezimoto ezinamasondo amabili nantathu, ingxenye eqhumayo manje eNdiya naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ngenxa yobuchwepheshe nezingxenye ezithathwe eShayina.

10.2 Isimo se-APS: Ukufinyelela Umgomo “we-Net-Zero”

Esimweni se-APS, esicabanga ukuthi bonke ohulumeni bahlangabezana nezithembiso zabo zesimo sezulu, i-IEA iphawula ukuthi umhlaba kumele ufinyelele eqophelweni lapho u-60% wazo zonke izimoto ezithengiswayo zisebenza ngogesi ngo-2030.

• Igalelo LeShayina Ezinhlosweni Zomhlaba Wonke:Lo mbiko ubala ukuthi iShayina iyona kuphela umnotho omkhulu okwamanje osendleleni yokudlula imigomo yayo ye-APS. Ukufeza kwayo imigomo yasekhaya kusenesikhathi kuyivumela ukuthi "ithumele ngaphandle ukukhishwa kwegesi" kwamanye amazwe, isize umhlaba ukuvala igebe phakathi kolimi kanye neqiniso.

11. Ukuhlaziywa Kwezomnotho: “Inguquko Entsha Yezimboni”

Isinqumo se-IEA sidlula amandla okuhlaziya ingcebo yezizwe. Isiphetho siwukuthi ushintsho lwe-EV luwushintsho olukhulu kakhulu lwezimboni selokhu kwasungulwa umugqa wokuhlanganisa.

11.1 Ushintsho Enhlokodolobha Yokukhiqiza Yomhlaba Wonke

I-IEA inikeza idatha ngokutshalwa kwezimali emkhakheni we-EV.

• Ukugxila Kwezimali:Ngo-2024 nango-2025, imali engaphezu kuka-65% yokutshalwa kwezimali emhlabeni wonke kumafektri amakhulu ebhethri kanye nemigqa yokukhiqiza i-EV yenzeka eShayina. Lokhu kudale "i-Gravity Well" yobuchwepheshe bezimboni okunzima ukuthi ezinye izifunda ziyibalekele.
• "Ukuvuselelwa Kwezimboni" KwaseNtshonalanga:Lo mbiko uqokomisa ukuthi amazwe aseNtshonalanga azama ukuheha utshalomali lwaseShayina ukuze aqalise izimboni zawo zasekhaya. I-IEA ayibheki lokhu njengokulahlekelwa ubukhosi, kodwa njengokudluliselwa kobuchwepheshe okudingekayo ukuqinisekisa ukwamukelwa komhlaba wonke.

11.2 Umthelela Ezilinganisweni Zokuhweba Zomhlaba Wonke

Isinqumo se-IEA sibonisa ukuthi insalela yokuhweba ngezimoto ishintsha ngokuphawulekayo.

• IShayina njengoMthumeli Ophelele Wenani:Okokuqala ngqa, iShayina ithumela ngaphandle izingxenye zezimoto ezinenani eliphezulu (amabhethri, ama-semiconductor, izinhlelo ezihlakaniphile) kunalezo ezithumela ngaphandle. Umbiko uphawula ukuthi lokhu kushintsha kakhulu ubudlelwano bezohwebo phakathi kweShayina namandla endabuko njengeJalimane neJapane.

12. Ukucwila Okujulile Kobuchwepheshe: Ubuchwepheshe obubukwa yi-IEA

Umbiko we-IEA ka-2026 uqokomisa izisekelo ezithile zobuchwepheshe lapho iShayina ihola khona.

12.1 I-Sodium-Ion kanye Nokuphela Kokukhathazeka Nge-Lithium

I-IEA ikhomba amabhethri e-Sodium-ion njengesisusa esikhulu esilandelayo sokusetshenziswa ngobuningi.

• Ukuqeda i-Lithium Bottleneck:Ngokunciphisa ukuthembela ku-lithium, ubuchwepheshe be-Sodium-ion (obuqalwe ekukhiqizweni okukhulu yizinkampani zaseShayina ezifana ne-HiNa Battery kanye ne-BYD) kunciphisa izindleko zokungena kuma-EV nakakhulu.
• Ilungele "iNingizimu Yomhlaba":Umbiko uphawula ukuthi ukuphepha kwe-Sodium-ion kanye nephrofayili yezindleko kwenza kube ubuchwepheshe obuhle kakhulu ezimakethe ezinkulu zasemadolobheni ase-Afrika naseNingizimu Asia, lapho izindleko ziyisithiyo esiyinhloko sokwamukelwa.

12.2 Imoto-kuya-Konke (V2X) kanye neGridi Ehlakaniphile

Isinqumo se-IEA siqokomisa abashayeli bezindiza be-V2X baseShayina “eDolobheni Lonke”.

• Imoto Ehlanganisiwe Negridi:Ngo-2026, izinkulungwane zezimoto emadolobheni afana neShenzhen zihlanganyela ekulinganiseni umthwalo ngokuzenzakalela. I-IEA ithi lobu buchwepheshe buyisisekelo se-"Smart Energy Society," lapho imoto ingaseyona umthengi wamandla, kodwa ingumphathi osebenzayo wegridi.

13. Izifundo Zesifunda: "Umphumela WaseShayina" Usebenza

Umbiko we-IEA unikeza umbono oningiliziwe wokuthi indima yeShayina njenge-catalyst idlala kanjani ezimakethe ezahlukene.

13.1 INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia: Ukwanda kwe-ASEAN

EThailand nase-Indonesia, i-“China Catalyst” iholele ekwandeni okungu-200% kokuthengiswa kwezimoto ze-EV eminyakeni emibili nje kuphela.

• Ukukhiqizwa Kwendawo:I-IEA iphawula ukuthi ngokwakha amafektri endawo, izinkampani zaseShayina ziyaweqa amanani entela futhi zidala “i-Regional EV Hub” eheha abanye abahlinzeki bomhlaba wonke.
• Ukumiswa:Ukwamukelwa kwezindinganiso zokushaja zaseShayina kanye nokwakhiwa kweplatifomu e-ASEAN kudala imakethe ehlangene eyenza kube lula ukwanda kwesifunda kubo bonke abadlali be-EV.

13.2 IMpumalanga Ephakathi: Ukwehlukahluka Kwamandla Umdlalo

E-UAE naseSaudi Arabia, ama-EV aseShayina aba yindlela yokukhetha ukushintshela emnothweni ongeyona eye-oyela.

• Ukushaja Okunamandla Aphezulu:Umbiko we-IEA uqokomisa ukuthi ukushisa okukhulu kweMpumalanga Ephakathi kube yindawo yokuhlola izinhlelo zokuphatha ukushisa zaseShayina, okufakazela ukuthi ama-EV angasebenza ngokuthembekile ngisho nasezindaweni ezinzima kakhulu.

14. I-Geopolitics: Ingozi Yokuhlukana Nemigomo Yesimo Sezulu Yomhlaba Wonke

Isinqumo se-IEA sihlanganisa isixwayiso esiqinile mayelana nezingozi zemakethe ye-EV yomhlaba wonke ehlukene.

14.1 Izindleko Zokuvikela

Umbiko ubala ukuthi uma i-US ne-EU zingahlukanisa ngempumelelo uchungechunge lwazo lokuphakelwa oluvela eShayina, izindleko zomhlaba wonke zama-EV zingakhuphuka ngo-25-30% ngo-2030.

• Ukutholwa Kwengane Okulibazisekile:Lokhu kukhuphuka kwentengo cishe kuzolibazisa "i-Tipping Point" yokwamukelwa ngobuningi ngeminyaka emi-3-5, okungenzeka kwenze kube nzima ukuhlangabezana nezinhloso zeSivumelwano saseParis.
• Imakethe "Ehlukaniswe Kabili":I-IEA yesaba umhlaba onezinhlelo zemvelo ezimbili ezihlukene ze-EV—eyodwa eholwa yiShayina kanye neyodwa eholwa yiNtshonalanga—engenakho ukusebenzisana, okwandisa izindleko zabakhiqizi kanye nobunzima kubathengi.

14.2 Indlela Eya “Ekubambisaneni Komhlaba Wonke”

I-Ejensi ye-IEA incoma "uBambiswano Lokuphepha Kwezimbiwa" oluhlanganisa iShayina, olugxile emananini asobala kanye nokuthola izinto ngokuziphatha esikhundleni sokukhishwa ngaphandle ngokuphelele. Isinqumo siwukuthi inkinga yesimo sezulu iphuthumayo kakhulu empini yokuhweba egcwele emkhakheni wezobuchwepheshe obuluhlaza.

(Ukuqhubeka nezigaba zokugcina: Umthelela Wezomnotho Omkhulu, Indima Yokukhiqiza Okuhlakaniphile, kanye Nesiphetho…)

15. Umthelela Ezimakethe Zezisebenzi Zomhlaba Wonke: “Isihluthulelo Samakhono”

Ingxenye ebalulekile kodwa evame ukunganakwa yesinqumo se-IEA ukuthi iShayina ikhuthaza kanjani ushintsho lomhlaba wonke emsebenzini wezimoto. Ukushintsha kusuka enjinini yokushisa yangaphakathi kuya emotweni kagesi akukhona nje ushintsho ezingxenyeni; kungukushintsha kwabantu.

15.1 Inselele Yokufuduka Nokuqeqeshelwa Kabusha

Umbiko we-IEA uqokomisa ukuthi izikole zezimoto zaseShayina kanye nezimboni zakhe “i-Blueprint for EV Labor.”

• Unjiniyela we-Software-Hardware Hybrid:Impumelelo yaseShayina yakhelwe esizukulwaneni esisha sabasebenzi abakhululekile ngokubhala amakhodi njengoba bekhululekile ngokuhlanganiswa kwemishini. I-IEA iphawula ukuthi abakhiqizi baseYurophu nabaseMelika manje sebebheke "iShenzhen Model" yokuqeqeshwa kwemisebenzi ukuze bathuthukise amakhono abasebenzi babo.
• Ushintsho Lwezisebenzi Emhlabeni Wonke:Njengoba izinkampani zaseShayina zakha amafektri eHungary, eBrazil naseThailand, zithumela lokhu kuqeqeshwa kwamanye amazwe, zidala ichibi lomhlaba wonke lamathalente akhuluma kahle ulimi lokuhamba kukagesi.

15.2 Ukuvela “Kwengcweti Yedijithali”

Esikhathini sokukhiqiza okuhlakaniphile, isisebenzi sendabuko somugqa wokuhlanganisa sithathelwa indawo yi-“Digital Artisan”—izisebenzi eziphatha imikhumbi yamarobhothi futhi zisebenzisa i-AI ukulawula ikhwalithi. Isinqumo se-IEA sithi ukuhola kweShayina kulokhu “Ukukhiqiza Okuhlakaniphile” kuyisisekelo sobuchwepheshe esizochaza ikusasa lokuncintisana kwezimboni emhlabeni jikelele.

16. Izinhlelo Zokusungula Izinto Ezintsha: I-Shenzhen vs. I-Silicon Valley

Ukuhlaziywa kwe-IEA kuqhathanisa izikhungo zomhlaba wonke zokusungula izinto ezintsha ze-EV.

• I-Shenzhen: Inhloko-dolobha Yokwenziwa Kwezingxenyekazi Zehadiwe:Umbiko udumisa “i-Hardware Ecosystem” yaseShenzhen, lapho i-prototype ingakhiwa futhi ihlolwe ngesikhathi esincane esithathayo ezindaweni zezimoto zendabuko. Lesi sivinini sokuphindaphinda sibizwa ngokuthi “i-Secret Sauce” ye-China Catalyst.
• I-Silicon Valley: Isoftware Vanguard:Nakuba i-US ihamba phambili kwesofthiwe kanye ne-AI, i-IEA iphawula ukuthi "Igebe Liyavalwa." Izinkampani zaseShayina ziya ngokuya zihlanganisa i-AI ethuthukisiwe ezimotweni zazo ngezindleko eziphansi, okuletha "amazinga eSilicon Valley" obuhlakani emakethe enkulu.

17. Izincomo Zesu Le-IEA Zango-2026 Zohulumeni

Lesi sinqumo siphetha ngesethi "yezinto ezizokwenziwa" zabenzi benqubomgomo yomhlaba wonke ukuze basebenzise i-China Catalyst ngenkathi benciphisa izingozi.

17.1 Ukwakha Ingqalasizinda ethi “Plug-and-Play”

I-IEA incoma ukuthi ohulumeni basebenzise imodeli ethi “Ukufinyelela Okubanzi” yokukhokhisa, ethonywe kakhulu yizindinganiso zezwe laseShayina.

• Ukususa Izithiyo Zemakethe:Izinqubomgomo kufanele ziqinisekise ukuthi noma iyiphi i-EV ingakhokhisa kunoma yisiphi isiteshi ngendlela eyodwa yokukhokha, izinga lokusebenzisana elivele liba yinto evamile emadolobheni ase-tier-1 aseShayina.

17.2 Ukukhuthaza “Amaketanga Okuphakelwa Okujikelezayo”

Ohulumeni banxuswa ukuba bakhuthaze ukuvuselelwa kwamabhethri kusukela ekuqaleni.

• Ukufunda Kumholi:I-IEA ikhomba imithetho yaseShayina yokulandelela nokuvuselela amabhethri njengemithetho yomhlaba wonke "yeGolide." Ngokudala imakethe yesibili yamaminerali abalulekile, amazwe anganciphisa ukuthembela kwawo ekumbeni okusha futhi anciphise umthelela wawo emvelweni.

18. Ikusasa Lempahla: Indima YeShayina Ekufakeni Ugesi Emkhakheni “Onemisebenzi Enzima”

Umbiko we-IEA ka-2026 uphawula ushintsho ekugxileni ekuthuthweni okunzima.

• Ukushintshwa Kwamabhethri Kwamaloli:Lo mbiko uqokomisa izinhlelo zokuhlola eziphumelelayo zaseShayina zokushintshana ngamabhethri athwala amaloli amakhulu. Ezikhumulweni nasezindaweni zokumba kulo lonke elaseShayina, amaloli kagesi manje asebenza amahora angama-24 ngosuku, izinsuku eziyi-7 ngesonto, okufakazela ukuthi ngisho nemikhakha okunzima kakhulu ukuyisusa i-carbon isengozini ye-"China Catalyst."
• Ukuthunyelwa Kwamanye Amazwe Kwezobuchwepheshe Obusebenza Kakhulu:Izinkampani ezifana ne-BYD kanye ne-Sany sezivele zithumela amabhasi kagesi namaloli emazweni angaphezu kwama-50. Isinqumo se-IEA sithi ukufakwa kukagesi kwezokuthutha emhlabeni wonke kuzoholwa yizinkampani ezifanayo zaseShayina ezaziphethe kahle imakethe yezimoto zabagibeli.

19. Ukuhlanganiswa Kokugcina: IShayina njenge "Green Heartland" yekhulu lama-21

I-“Global EV Outlook 2026” ye-IEA ingaphezu kombiko; iwukuqaphela uhlelo olusha lomhlaba. Isinqumo siwukuthi iShayina isibe “yiGreen Heartland”—indawo ephakathi lapho ukuguquka kwamandla emhlabeni wonke kumele kudlule khona.

19.1 Indida Yokukhetha

Umhlaba ubhekene nempikiswano: kumele ukhethe phakathi kokuvikelwa kwezimboni kanye nesivinini sokuguquka kwamandla. Isinqumo se-IEA sibonisa ukuthi lokhu okulandelayo kuyisibopho somhlaba wonke okumele sithathe indawo yokuqala. Indima yeShayina njengesisusa akuyona ingozi okufanele isuswe, kodwa amandla okumele aqondiswe ukuze kuzuze iplanethi.

19.2 Isiphetho “Esingaguquki”

Njengoba sibheke ku-2035, i-IEA ibikezela ukuthi i-"China Catalyst" izoholela ezweni lapho ukuhamba kukagesi kuyizinto ezizenzakalelayo. Injini yokushisa yangaphakathi izoba yinsalela yesikhathi esidlule, futhi uhlelo lwamandla lomhlaba wonke luzovikeleka kakhudlwana, lusebenze kahle kakhudlwana, futhi luqhubeke isikhathi eside.

• Isinqumo Sokugcina:IShayina ayizange iwine nje umjaho wokwakha i-EV engcono kakhulu; yakha inkundla yomjaho yomhlaba wonke. Ngokunciphisa izindleko, ukubeka amazinga, nokufakazela ukuthi ikusasa elingenayo igesi ekhishwayo liyasebenza, iShayina ifeze indima yayo njengesikhuthazo esibalulekile somhlaba ohlanzekile nogesi.

Ithebula Ledatha Elifingqiwe: Isinqumo se-IEA ku-China Catalyst (2026)

20. Isiphetho: Ukuqala Kwekhulu Likagesi

Isinqumo se-International Energy Agency sango-2026 siphawula ukuphela kwesigaba “sokwamukela kusenesikhathi” kanye nokuqala kwesikhathi “semakethe enkulu”. Indima yeShayina njengesikhuthazi somhlaba wonke manje isiyiqiniso lomlando, elisekelwa yidatha kuwo wonke amazwekazi. Kusukela emigwaqweni yaseShanghai kuya emigwaqweni emikhulu yaseYurophu kanye namadolobha asathuthuka e-Global South, i-“China Catalyst” ibonakala kuzo zonke iziteshi zokushaja kanye nazo zonke izinjini zikagesi.

Inselele yomhlaba wonke manje iwukuzivumelanisa nezimo nokuhambisana. Njengoba umbiko we-IEA uphetha, ukushintshela esikhathini esizayo samandla esimeme akuseyona indaba yokuthi “uma,” kodwa “kangakanani ukushesha.” Futhi leso sivinini silawulwa ikhono lokukhiqiza, ukusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe, kanye nombono wamasu we-EV catalyst ehamba phambili emhlabeni. Ikhulu likagesi selifikile, futhi inhliziyo yalo ishaya eShayina.

21. Umngcele Wezobuchwepheshe 2026-2035: Igagasi Elilandelayo Le-China Catalyst

Isinqumo se-IEA siphinde sibheke phambili “esizukulwaneni esilandelayo” sobuchwepheshe iShayina esivele ibukhulisa, okuzosheshisa kakhulu ukwamukelwa komhlaba wonke.

21.1 Ukuhweba Okuqinile: Ukuphepha Nokuthuthuka Kwebanga

Ngo-2026, amabhethri e-semi-solid-state asuke ezimotweni ezikhiqiza kakhulu aya ezimotweni ezikhiqiza kakhulu eShayina. I-IEA ibikezela ukuthi eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo iShayina izohola ukushintshela kumabhethri e-all-solid-state (ASSB).

• Umthelela Womhlaba Wonke:Amabhethri e-Solid-state asusa izingozi zomlilo ezihambisana nama-electrolyte aketshezi futhi anikeze ubuningi bamandla obungaphinda kabili ububanzi bama-EV amanje. Umbiko we-IEA uphawula ukuthi ukubusa kwamaShayina ku-"Solid-State Supply Chain" kuzoba yi-catalyst elandelayo enkulu, okwenza ama-EV abe ukukhetha okuhle ngisho nasezinhlelweni ezinde ezidinga kakhulu.

21.2 Ukuphathwa Kwamandla Okuhlakaniphile (IEM) kanye Nokushaja Okuqhutshwa Yi-AI

Ukuhlanganiswa koBuhlakaniphi Bokwenziwa enqubweni yokushaja kuyisisekelo sobuchwepheshe i-IEA esibona njengomshayeli omkhulu wokusebenza kahle.

• Ukushaja Okubikezelayo:Izinkampani zaseShayina zisebenzisa i-AI ebikezela imithwalo yegridi kanye nokuziphatha komsebenzisi, okuvumela "ukulungiswa okuncane" kwesivinini sokushaja okusindisa amandla futhi kuvikele impilo yebhethri.
• Ukuthunyelwa kwe-“Smart Grid”:Umbiko we-IEA ubheka ikusasa lapho iShayina ingathumeli khona ihadiwe kuphela, kodwa ne-"Energy Operating Systems" eqhutshwa yi-AI ephatha wonke amagridi kazwelonke, izinga elisha lethonya lamasu.

22. Ukuhlaziywa Kwesimo Sendawo Yezepolitiki: Izindlela Ezintathu Zemakethe Yomhlaba Wonke

Isinqumo se-IEA siphetha ngokwethula izindlela ezintathu ezingaba khona ze-geopolitical emakethe ye-EV yomhlaba wonke kuze kube ngu-2035.

22.1 Isimo 1: “Ukusheshisa Okuvulekile” (Indlela Efanele Kakhulu)

Kulesi simo, izithiyo zokuhweba ziyancishiswa, futhi amazinga omhlaba wonke ayavumelana. Izinkampani zaseShayina zibambisana nezinkampani ezisebenza ngogesi zaseNtshonalanga ukwakha izintambo zokuphakelwa zendawo.

• Umphumela:Ukwamukelwa komhlaba wonke kufinyelela ku-80% ngo-2035, futhi umhlaba uhlangabezana ngempumelelo nomgomo wesimo sezulu ongu-1.5°C. Le ndlela ikhulisa umphumela we-“China Catalyst”.

22.2 Isimo 2: “Imakethe Ehlukene” (Indlela Yamanje)

Izindleko eziphakeme kanye nokukhathazeka ngokuphepha kwedatha kuholela ezindleleni ezimbili ezihlukene ze-EV: imakethe "ejwayelekile yaseShayina" kanye nemakethe "ejwayelekile yaseNtshonalanga".

• Umphumela:Izindleko zisalokhu ziphezulu, futhi ukwamukelwa kuyabambezeleka ezindaweni eziningi. I-"China Catalyst" isenamandla eNingizimu Yomhlaba, kodwa umthelela wayo eNtshonalanga awuzinzile, okuholela ekulahlekelweni kwemigomo yesimo sezulu.

22.3 Isimo 3: “Ubuzwe Obunezinsiza” (Indlela Yokungqubuzana)

Izizwe zisebenzisa izindlela zokulawula ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngamandla ezimbiweni ezibalulekile kanye nobuchwepheshe.

• Umphumela:Ushintsho lomhlaba wonke luyama. Izindleko zamabhethri ziyakhuphuka, futhi umhlaba usalokhu uncike kumafutha emvelo ukuze kutholakale esinye isizukulwane. I-IEA ixwayisa ngokuthi lesi simo siyingozi enkulu ekuchumeni kwabantu ekhulwini lama-21.

23. Amazwi Okugcina: Umthwalo Wemfanelo We-Catalyst

Inothi lokugcina le-IEA esinqumweni sika-2026 liwukubiza umthwalo wemfanelo. Njengesisusa somhlaba wonke, izinqumo zaseShayina mayelana nokusimama, abasebenzi, kanye nokwabelana ngobuchwepheshe zizolawula ijubane lokuguquka kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.

• Isikhathi Esisha Sokubambisana:I-Ejensi ithi ushintsho lukhulu kakhulu ukuthi noma yisiphi isizwe esisodwa singaluphatha sodwa, kodwa futhi kuyaphuthuma kakhulu ukulinda ukuvumelana okuphelele kwezepolitiki. Indima yeShayina ukuqhubeka nokucindezela imingcele yalokho okungenzeka, kuyilapho ingxenye esele yendima yomhlaba iwukuthola indlela yokuhlanganisa lokho kusungula izinto ezintsha emnothweni womhlaba wonke ohlukahlukene futhi oqinile.

I-"China Catalyst" ayiseyona inkolelo-mbono; ingamandla ayisisekelo aqhuba umhlaba uye ekusaseni elihlanzekile nelinogesi kakhudlwana. Isinqumo se-IEA sango-2026 siyidokhumenti yomlando eqopha umzuzu lapho umhlaba uqaphela ukuthi inguquko kagesi yayingaqali nje, kodwa manje yayingenakuvinjelwa, ngenxa yombono namandla okukhiqiza enkampani enamandla ye-EV ehamba phambili emhlabeni.

24. Isithasiselo Sobuchwepheshe: Ukujula Okujulile Ezicacisweni Zobunjiniyela ze-“China Catalyst”

Ukuze sinikeze ukuqonda okuqondile kobuholi bezobuchwepheshe obuhlonzwe yi-IEA, ake sihlole izilinganiso ezithile zobunjiniyela ezibeke indinganiso yomhlaba wonke kusukela ngo-2026.

24.1 Amamethrikhi e-Powertrain Asebenza Kakhulu

Ama-OEM aseShayina anyuse “Ukusebenza Kahle Kwesistimu” kwesitimela sikagesi (i-Battery to Wheel) safinyelela ngaphezu kwama-90%.

• Idrayivu Kagesi Ehlanganisiwe:Ukuhlanganiswa kwe-motor, i-inverter, i-gearbox, kanye ne-DC/DC converter kube yindlu eyodwa, ehlangene kuye kwehlisa isisindo kanye nomthamo ngo-15-20%. Umbiko we-IEA uphawula ukuthi lezi zinhlelo zokushayela ze-“8-in-1″ noma “10-in-1″,” eziqanjwe izinkampani ezifana ne-BYD kanye ne-GAC, ziyafundwa futhi zilingiswe onjiniyela bomhlaba wonke ukuze bathuthukise ibanga lezimoto ngaphandle kokukhulisa usayizi webhethri.
• Ubuchwepheshe Bokugoqa Iphini Lezinwele:Ukusetshenziswa kwama-windings “hairpin” anezintambo eziyisicaba kuma-motor kagesi sekuyinto ejwayelekile eShayina, okunikeza ukusebenza okungcono kokushisa kanye nobuningi be-torque ephezulu uma kuqhathaniswa nama-windings endabuko anezintambo eziyindilinga.

24.2 Izinhlelo Zokuphatha Ukushisa Ezithuthukisiwe (i-TMS)

Ukuphatha ukushisa kuyisihluthulelo sokuphila isikhathi eside kwebhethri nokushaja okusheshayo okukhulu.

• Iphampu Yokushisa Ebanzi:Ngo-2026, ngisho nama-EV aseShayina asezingeni lokuqala azobe esehlonyiswe ngezinhlelo zokushisa ezithuthukisiwe ezikhipha ukushisa okungcolile ebhethri kanye nezinto zikagesi ukuze kufudunyezwe ikhabhini, okugcina ububanzi obufika ku-20% ezimweni zasebusika.
• Ukupholisa/Ukushisa Okuqondile:Ukupholisa okuqondile kwamaseli ebhethri — i-coolant ejikelezayo ngamapuleti abandayo athintana neseli ngalinye — sekuyindlela ezenzakalelayo yamaphakethe okushaja okusheshayo aseShayina. Kuhlanganiswe nemiklamo ye-cell-to-pack (CTP) esusa izindlu zamamojula, ukupholisa okuqondile kuletha indawo yokushisa edingekayo yokushaja okusheshayo kwe-4C-6C okuqhubekayo ngaphandle kokusheshisa ukuguga kweseli. I-loop efanayo, eguqulwa yiphampu yokushisa, ifudumeza iphakethe ebusika, inciphisa izikhathi zokushaja futhi ilondoloze ububanzi lapho amazinga okushisa ehla ngaphansi kweqhwa.

Ukuphathwa kokushisa nakho kuyindaba yesikhathi sokushaja.Amapuleti abandayo afanayo aphola ngesikhathi sokushaja okusheshayo kwe-4C alungiselela iphakethe ngaphambi kokuqala kweseshini, ukuze ibhethri lifike eshajeni kakade ngaphakathi kwefasitela layo lokushisa elifanele. Ama-OEM aseShayina alinganisele lokhu "kulungiselelwa kusengaphambili endleleni eya eshajeni" ngokuhlanganiswa kokuzulazula, anciphise izikhathi zokushaja ezisebenzayo ngemizuzu eyi-10-15 ezimweni zasebusika - inzuzo elula ebonakala ngqo kudatha yokwaneliseka kwamakhasimende ye-IEA futhi ihlanganiswe kuzo zonke iziseshini ezingamashumi ezigidi ezenzeka emhlabeni wonke nsuku zonke.

24.3 Ingqalasizinda Yokushaja: Isistimu Yezinto Eziphilayo engu-800V

Ukuhlolwa kobuchwepheshe kwe-IEA kudlulela ngale kwemoto kuye ohlelweni lokushaja oluyisekelayo. Amanethiwekhi okushaja aseShayina ahola umhlaba wonke ezingeni lokuxinana kanye namandla: ama-supercharger apholile ngoketshezi anamandla e-megawatt, ama-stall asheshayo ahambisana ne-800V, kanye nezinga likazwelonke (GB/T) manje elihlanganisa ukushaja okuqondiswayo. Umbiko ka-2026 uthi le ngqalasizinda iqale ngokususa isithiyo "sokukhathazeka ngokushaja" esisacindezela ukwamukelwa ezimakethe ezihamba kancane - umjikelezo omuhle lapho ukusetshenziswa okuphezulu kuxhasa khona ukwakhiwa okwengeziwe.

Ihadiwe yokushaja yaseShayina nayo ibeka izinga lezindleko: ngokwenza amamojula kagesi e-SiC abe yizimboni kanye nama-cable assembly apholiswe uketshezi abe sezingeni eliphezulu, abakhiqizi baseShayina banciphise izindleko zokushaja ngokushesha okukhulu cishe ngo-40% kusukela ngo-2023, okwenza icala lebhizinisi lamanethiwekhi aminyene asemadolobheni lisebenze okokuqala.

I-China Catalyst, Elinganiselwe

Uma zihlanganiswa, izibalo zobunjiniyela kulesi sithasiselo zichaza okutholakele okuyinhloko kwe-IEA: I-China akuyona nje imakethe enkulu ye-EV - iyindawo yokubhekisela yobuchwepheshe lapho yonke eminye imakethe ilinganiswa khona. Ukusebenza kahle kwe-Powertrain okungaphezu kwama-90%, amaphampu okushisa atholakala yonke indawo, amaphakethe okushaja okusheshayo apholile ngqo, kanye nesistimu yengqalasizinda evala umjikelezo akuyona impumelelo ehlukanisiwe kodwa uhlelo oluklanywe kusukela ekuqaleni kuze kube sekupheleni.

Isiphetho: I-Catalyst Iba Yindinganiso

Isinqumo se-IEA siwukuqaphela iqiniso: indlela esheshayo yokufakelwa kukagesi emhlabeni wonke idlula kubunjiniyela baseShayina. Ubuchwepheshe obujwayelekile eShayina — amadrayivu angu-8-in-1, ama-hairpin motors, ukupholisa okuqondile, ukushaja okungu-800V — sebuba yizinto ezizenzakalelayo emhlabeni wonke hhayi ngenxa yemigomo yenqubomgomo kodwa ngoba zingcono kakhulu futhi zishibhile. Kuhulumeni, abenzi bezimoto, kanye nabaqhubi bokushaja emhlabeni jikelele, umphumela wesu awucacile: isilinganiso sesishintshile, futhi indlela ephumelela kakhulu yokukuthola ukubambisana, hhayi ukuvuselelwa.

Izinto Ezibalulekile Okufanele Uzicabangele

• Ama-powertrain aseShayina adlula ukusebenza kahle kohlelo okungu-90%, okubeka izinga lobunjiniyela bomhlaba wonke.
• Amaphampu okushisa kanye nokupholisa uketshezi ngqo kuyizinto ezijwayelekile kuma-EV aseShayina asezingeni elifanayo, okugcina izinga lasebusika futhi kuvumela ukushaja okusheshayo okungu-4C+.
• Uhlelo lokushaja lwe-800V lwaseShayina — oluholwa yihadiwe epholiswe uketshezi, enamandla e-megawatt — luyinkampani exinene kakhulu futhi engabizi kakhulu emhlabeni.

Xhumana ne-MIDA Power

Njengomkhiqizi waseShayina ophakathi kwalolu hlelo, i-MIDA Power inikeza amashaja asheshayo e-DC ahambisana ne-800V, ama-supercharger apholiswe ngoketshezi, kanye nezinhlelo ezihlanganisiwe ze-BESS ezisetshenziswa yizimakethe zomhlaba wonke ukulingisa inzuzo yokushaja yaseShayina. Ukuze uthole imininingwane, izilinganiso, noma ikhotheshini, xhumana nethimba lethu.