Isigqibo se-IEA: I-China njengeSikhuseli seHlabathi sokuKhawulezisa ukwamkelwa kweZithuthi zoMbane

Ukuhlalutya Isigqibo Esicwangcisiweyo se-International Energy Agency malunga nendima ebalulekileyo yaseTshayina njengeSikhuseli Esibalulekileyo seHlabathi sokukhawulezisa ukwamkelwa kwezithuthi zombane kunye notshintsho oluvela kwiipateni zokusetyenziswa kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela

1. Intshayelelo: Ixesha le-IEA's 2026 Watershed Moment

I-International Energy Agency (IEA), ebisoloko ithathwa njengomlamli wehlabathi weendlela zamandla kunye nohlalutyo lwemigaqo-nkqubo, ikhuphe ingxelo yayo ecacileyo ethi "Global EV Outlook 2026" enesigqibo esiye savakala kuzo zonke izixeko ezinkulu kunye namagumbi eenkampani: I-China ngokusesikweni ibe "yiGlobal Catalyst" yokukhawulezisa ukusetyenziswa kwezithuthi zombane (EV).

Kangangeminyaka, i-IEA ibilandela ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kokuhamba kombane, kodwa ingxelo ka-2026 ibonisa utshintsho kwithoni. Ayisayi kuqaphela nje iTshayina njengenkokeli ngokwayo; ichaza iTshayina njengenjini ephambili eqhuba lonke ihlabathi ukuba litshintshe ukusuka kwinjini yokutsha yangaphakathi (ICE). Ngokutsho kwe-IEA, ngaphandle kobukhulu, ubugcisa, kunye nokunciphisa iindleko ezifezekiswe licandelo leemoto laseTshayina, injongo yehlabathi yokufikelela kwi-net-zero emissions ngo-2050 ibingayi kufezekiswa.

Eli nqaku libonelela ngohlalutyo olunzulu kwisigqibo se-IEA. Siza kuhlola indlela impumelelo yasekhaya yaseTshayina eye yanciphisa ngayo iindleko zehlabathi zeebhetri, indlela isakhelo sayo somgaqo-nkqubo esisebenze ngayo njengesicwangciso sezinye iintlanga, kunye nefuthe lobuchwephesha kunye nezopolitiko zale "Ndima yeCatalyst." Ngaphezu koko, siza kuhlola idatha ye-IEA malunga nokhuseleko lwamandla, ebonisa indlela ukwamkelwa kwe-EV ekhokelwa yiTshayina okutshintsha ngayo ngokusisiseko imfuno yeoyile yehlabathi kwaye kuhlengahlengisa izinto eziza kuqala kwisicwangciso sezizwe ezivelisa amandla kunye nezisebenzisa amandla.

2. Inkcazo "yeCatalyst": Uqoqosho lweHlabathi

Eyona nto ibalulekileyo kwisigqibo se-IEA yingcamango yeTshayina njengento ebangela iindleko. Kwihlabathi letekhnoloji, isikali sesona sizathu sokuba kubekho ukufikeleleka, kwaye iTshayina ibonelele ngaloo sikali kwinqanaba elingazange libonwe ngaphambili.

2.1 Ukunciphisa umgangatho weendleko zebhetri

Ibhetri yeyona nto ibiza kakhulu kwi-EV. Ingxelo ye-IEA igxininisa ukuba ukusebenza kakuhle kwemveliso yaseTshayina kwehlise amaxabiso eebhetri ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-$100/kWh kuluhlu olubanzi lweekhemikhali—umda obekukudala uthathwa “njengenqaku lokulinganisa ixabiso” kwiimoto ze-ICE.

• Umatshini wokuphindaphinda we-LFP:Ubuchule baseTshayina kunye nokuveliswa ngobuninzi kweebhetri zeLithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) kube yeyona nto iphambili ekuncitshisweni kweendleko. Ngokubonisa ukuba i-LFP inokuhlangabezana neemfuno zoluhlu kunye nokusebenza komthengi oqhelekileyo, iinkampani zaseTshayina zanyanzela ishishini lehlabathi ukuba liphinde livavanye ukuxhomekeka kwalo kwiikhemikhali ezibiza kakhulu ezisekelwe kwi-nickel kunye ne-cobalt.
• Inzuzo yeHlabathi:Olu nciphiso lweendleko alupheleli eTshayina kuphela. Ngokuthumela iiseli kunye nezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo kwamanye amazwe, nangokubeka umlinganiselo ophantsi wamaxabiso ehlabathi, iinkampani zaseTshayina ziye zenza ukuba ii-OEM zaseNtshona nezaseJapan zikwazi ukubonelela ngee-EV ezikhuphisanayo ngakumbi kunokuba bekunokwenzeka kwihlabathi elingenakhuphiswano lwaseTshayina.

2.2 "Impembelelo yeFlywheel" yeZiseko zoPhuhliso

I-IEA igxininisa ukuba indima yeTshayina njengesixhobo sokuphucula izinto ikwamalunga neziseko zophuhliso njengoko injalo malunga nezithuthi.

• Ukuhlala Unjalo Njengomqhubi:Njengoko kukho iinqwaba zokutshaja zikawonke-wonke ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezi-4 ekupheleni kuka-2025, iTshayina ibonakalise ukuba ukwamkelwa ngokubanzi akunakwenzeka ngaphandle kwenethiwekhi yokutshaja ebonakalayo, ethembekileyo, nesemgangathweni.
• Isicwangciso-nkqubo seZiseko zoPhuhliso:I-IEA ikhomba kwisicwangciso saseTshayina “sokukhokela okuphakathi”—apho iziseko zokutshaja zakhiwe khona ngaphambi kancinci kwemfuno yemarike—njengeyona ndlela isebenzayo yokuphelisa ixhala lokusasazeka kweendawo kunye nokukhawulezisa utshintsho. Amazwe amaninzi aseYurophu naseMzantsi-mpuma Asia ngoku asebenzisa le ndlela iphambili yaseTshayina.

3. IiMetriki zokungena kwiMarike: Ukwahlukana kweHlabathi

Idatha ye-IEA ka-2026 ibonisa umahluko omangalisayo kwindlela imimandla eyahlukeneyo esabela ngayo kwi-"China Catalyst."

3.1 ITshayina: Umlinganiselo we-50%

Ngowama-2026, iTshayina ifikelele kwinqanaba lembali apho ngaphezulu kwama-50% azo zonke iimoto ezintsha ezithengiswayo ziiNew Energy Vehicles (NEVs). Olu kwamkelwa ngokukhawuleza bubungqina bengcamango elandelwa lihlabathi liphela. I-IEA iphawula ukuba olu tshintsho lwenzeke ngokukhawuleza eTshayina kunalo naluphi na utshintsho lwetekhnoloji lwangaphambili kwimbali yeemoto.

3.2 IManyano yaseYurophu: Ikhawuleza Nangona Kukho Ingxaki

I-EU isaqhubeka nokuba yimarike yesibini ngobukhulu yee-EV, apho amazinga okwamkelwa ejikeleza malunga ne-25-30% ngo-2026. Isigwebo se-IEA sibonisa ukuba nangona i-EU inabavelisi bayo abanamandla basekhaya, ubukho beemodeli zaseTshayina ezingabizi kakhulu busebenze “njengesikhuthazo sokhuphiswano,” nto leyo enyanzelisa iimpawu zaseYurophu ezifana neVolkswagen kunye neRenault ukuba zikhawulezise izicwangciso zazo ze-EV zokukhusela isabelo sazo semarike.

3.3 I-United States: Indlu Enamandla Engasasebenziyo

Izinga lokwamkelwa kwe-US limalunga ne-12-15% ngo-2026. I-IEA ithi oku kubangelwa kukudityaniswa kwamaxabiso aphantsi epetroli, ukunqongophala kweziseko zokutshaja kwiindawo eziphakathi nasentshona nasemaphandleni, kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yorhwebo eye yathintela ukungena kwee-EV zaseTshayina ezingabizi kakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, ingxelo ibonisa ukuba "i-China Catalyst" isavakala ngekhonkco lokubonelela, njengoko izityalo zebhetri eziseMelika zixhomekeke kakhulu kubuchwepheshe bokuvelisa baseTshayina kunye nezixhobo.

4. Umgaqo-nkqubo njengeSicwangciso-nkqubo: Impembelelo yeHlabathi "yeModeli yaseTshayina"

Uhlalutyo lwe-IEA ludlulela ngaphaya kwamandla emarike ukuze luhlolisise izinto ezintsha zomgaqo-nkqubo ezithunyelwe yiTshayina kwihlabathi liphela.

4.1 Inkqubo yeTyala ye-NEV

Inkqubo yaseTshayina ethi “Parallel Management” (inkqubo yeDual-Credit) icatshulwe yi-IEA njengodidi oluphambili kumgaqo-nkqubo wezoshishino. Ngokuyalela ipesenti yemveliso ukuba ingabi yi-zero-emission, urhulumente waseTshayina wanyanzelisa ukwenziwa kwezinto ezintsha waza waqinisekisa ukuba kukho ukuhanjiswa rhoqo kwee-EV. Iindidi zale nkqubo ngoku ziyaxoxwa kumazwe amaninzi asakhasayo njengoko ejonge ukwakha amashishini awo e-EV.

4.2 Iimfuno zoMveliso zasekuhlaleni

Imfuneko yokuqala yaseTshayina yokuba iifemu zangaphandle zenze amaqumrhu adibeneyo yayingavumelani, kodwa ngo-2026, ijongwa ngamazwe afana ne-Indonesia, iBrazil, neThailand njengomzekelo wokwenziwa kwemveliso "eyongeziweyo". La mazwe ngoku afuna iifemu zaseTshayina ze-EV ukuba zakhe iifektri zasekuhlaleni kwaye zabelane ngetekhnoloji ngokutshintshiselana nokufikelela kwimarike, utshintsho oluthe ngqo lwesicwangciso esasetyenziswa yiTshayina kwiminyaka elishumi eyadlulayo.

5. Umatshini woNcedo lweZibonelelo: Ii-OEM zeHlabathi ezixhamlayo

Mhlawumbi eyona nxalenye imangalisayo yesigwebo se-IEA kukuvuma ukuba ulawulo lwaseTshayina ngokweneneiyancedaAbenzi bezithuthi baseNtshona bekwinguqu yabo.

5.1 "I-Hardware-as-a-Service" yeeBrand zeHlabathi

I-IEA iphawula ukuba phantse yonke i-OEM enkulu yehlabathi—ukusuka kwiTesla kunye neFord ukuya kwiMercedes-Benz—ifakwe kwikhonkco lokubonelela laseTshayina.

• Amaqonga Akwabelwana Ngawo:Umkhwa weebhrendi zaseNtshona ezisebenzisa amaqonga aseTshayina (umz., iVolkswagen esebenzisa iqonga leXPENG, okanye iToyota esebenzisa ibhetri kunye netekhnoloji yeemoto zeBYD) uchazwa yi-IEA njengempendulo esebenzayo kwindima yeTshayina njenge "Technical Base" yolu shishino.
• Ukwabelana ngeendleko:Ngokusebenzisa umthamo omkhulu wemarike yaseTshayina, iimpawu zehlabathi zinokufikelela kuqoqosho olukhulu olungenakwenzeka ukuba bezithembele kuphela kwiimarike zazo ezincinci zasekhaya.

5.2 Ukuqina kwenkqubo yebhetri

Ingxelo ye-IEA ithi nangona "ukususa umngcipheko" ingumxholo oqhelekileyo wezopolitiko, inyani ebonakalayo yekhonkco lokubonelela ngebhetri ngo-2026 yenza ukuba ukwahlukana ngokupheleleyo kungenzeki. Indima yeTshayina ekucoceni i-60% ye-lithium yehlabathi kunye ne-90% yegraphite yayo yenza ukuba ibe "yiLinchpin" yemveliso ye-EV yehlabathi. Isigwebo se-IEA sibonisa ukuba injongo akufuneki ibe kukwahlukana neTshayina, kodwa kunoko ukwakha ikhonkco lokubonelela ngeenkonzo kwihlabathi liphela elisebenzisa ubuchule baseTshayina.

(Kuza kuqhubeka kwicandelo elilandelayo ngoKhuseleko lwaMandla, iZiko loBugcisa, kunye ne-IEA's 2030 Roadmap…)

6. Imbono yoKhuseleko lwaMandla: Ukuchaza ngokutsha iiNguqu zamandla eHlabathi

Uhlalutyo olunefuthe elinzulu lwe-IEA lugxile kwindlela ukwamkelwa kwee-EV ezikhokelwa yiTshayina okutshintsha ngayo ibhalansi yamandla yehlabathi. Isigqibo sicacile: ii-EV zezona zixhobo zisebenzayo zokulwa nokuxhomekeka kwioyile.

6.1 Ukususwa kweBhareli: Ukuncipha kweMfuno yeOyile yoThutho lweNdlela

Ingxelo ka-2026 inika ulwazi olumangalisayo malunga nokufuduswa kweoyile.

• IiMetriki zoMthamo:Ngowama-2026, izithuthi zombane zehlabathi (ezikhokelwa linani elikhulu lasekhaya laseTshayina) ziya kulahla iibhareli zeoyile ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezi-2.5 ngosuku. Okokuqala ngqa, i-IEA ibona "incopho kunye nomgangatho" ocacileyo kwimfuno yeoyile yehlabathi yothutho lwabakhweli ezindleleni.
• Into yaseTshayina:Ngaphezulu kwama-50% oku kufuduka kwenzeka ngaphakathi eTshayina. Oku kunefuthe elikhulu kukhuseleko lwamandla eTshayina, kunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwayo kwiindlela zeoyile zaselwandle ezisengozini (njengeStrait of Malacca) kwaye kuphucula ibhalansi yayo yorhwebo.

6.2 Ii-Strategic Reserves kunye neGrid njengeBhetri

Isigwebo se-IEA sikhomba kuhlobo olutsha lokhuseleko lwamandla: "iStrategic Electric Reserve."

• Ukuqina kwe-V2G kunye neGrid:Njengoko izigidi zee-EV ziqhagamshelwe kwigridi, zisebenza njengebhetri enkulu, esasazekileyo. I-IEA igxininisa ubunkokeli bokuqala baseTshayina kwiinkqubo zovavanyo lweVehicle-to-Grid (V2G) njengomzekelo wendlela amazwe anokusingatha ngayo ukungabikho kwamandla avuselelekayo.
• Utshintsho oluvela kwiimolekyuli ukuya kwii-electron:Ukhuseleko lwamandla alusekho nje ekukhuseleni amasimi eoyile; luphathelele ekukhuseleni izimbiwa zeebhetri kunye nokuzinza kwegridi yombane. I-IEA ithi ukuqala kweTshayina phambili kuzo zombini ezi ndawo kuyinike "iNzuzo yokuHamba kokuQala" amanye amazwe ngoku azama ukuyiphinda.

7. Isiseko soBugcisa: Ukuthunyelwa kweMigangatho kunye nobuNgcali kwamanye amazwe

Indima yeTshayina njengesixhobo sokukhuthaza ayipheleli nje kubungakanani beemoto, kodwa ikwamalunga “nolwimi” lwexesha lombane.

7.1 Imigangatho yokutshaja kunye nokusebenzisana kwehlabathi

Isigwebo se-IEA siyavuma ukuba idabi malunga nemigangatho yokutshaja (GB/T vs. CCS vs. NACS) lichaphazeleka kakhulu kukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo ngaphandle kweTshayina.

• Ukusebenzisana kweSoftware neHardware:Xa iinkampani zaseTshayina ezifana neTeison zithumela izitishi zokutshaja eYurophu okanye eMzantsi-mpuma Asia, azithengisi nje kuphela izixhobo zekhompyutha; zithumela ngaphandle iinkqubo zesoftware (ezifana ne-OCPP 2.0.1) kunye namava abasebenzisi aphuculweyo kwimarike ye-EV ebaluleke kakhulu kwihlabathi.
• Ukwenza lula amava omsebenzisi:Ingxelo ye-IEA incoma i-"Plug & Charge" kunye neenkqubo zokuhlawula ezidibeneyo ezaqalwa eTshayina, iphawula ukuba ezi ziseko zobugcisa ziyasetyenziswa kwihlabathi liphela ukwenza ubunini be-EV bube lula njengokusebenzisa i-smartphone.

7.2 I-Paradigm yeSithuthi esiChaziweyo yiSoftware (SDV)

I-IEA ichonga iTshayina njengenkokeli "kwiNgcali" yee-EV.

• IiCockpits ezikrelekrele njengesiqhelo:Isigwebo siphawula ukuba ii-EV zaseTshayina zibeke umgangatho omtsha wehlabathi malunga nokuba ingaphakathi lemoto lifanele libe njani. Iimpawu ezifana nolawulo lwelizwi oluqhutywa yi-AI, izikrini ezinkulu ezisebenzisanayo, kunye nokuhlanganiswa kwamafu okungenamthungo azisezozinto zodidi; zizinto ezilindelweyo ezibekwe yimarike yaseTshayina.
• I-OTA njengegazi lobomi:Ingxelo igxininisa ukuba ukukwazi ukuhlaziya uluhlu lwesithuthi, ukusebenza kwaso, kunye neempawu zokhuseleko emoyeni (OTA) sisiseko sobugcisa esiye saziwa ziinkampani zaseTshayina, nto leyo enciphisa kakhulu "ukwehla kwexabiso lobuchwepheshe" obuchaphazela izithuthi zemveli ze-ICE.

8. Uxinzelelo lweJografi kwezopolitiko xa kuthelekiswa neenjongo zeMozulu: UMthetho woLungelelaniso lwe-IEA

Ingxelo ye-IEA ayiphepheli ukungqubana phakathi komgaqo-nkqubo worhwebo kunye nesidingo sokusingqongileyo.

8.1 "Imfazwe yoRhwebo oluLuhlaza"

Isigwebo se-IEA sibonisa ukuba ukumiselwa kweerhafu kwiimoto zombane zaseTshayina (ezifana ne-EU kunye ne-US) kudala "i-Green Paradox."

• Ixabiso vs. Isantya:Amanyathelo okukhusela asenokusindisa imisebenzi yasekhaya kwixesha elifutshane, kodwa anyusa iindleko zee-EV kubathengi kwaye anciphise izinga lokwamkelwa, okwenza kube nzima ukuhlangabezana neenjongo zemozulu.
• Ingcebiso ye-IEA:I-Arhente ifuna “uKhuphiswano lweNtsebenziswano,” apho amazwe akhuphisana ukwakha ii-EV ezilungileyo ngelixa egcina uthotho lokubonelela oluvulekileyo lwezimbiwa ezibalulekileyo kunye netekhnoloji.

8.2 UMzantsi weHlabathi kunye "noTshintsho loBugcisa"

I-IEA igxininisa indima yeTshayina “ekususweni kwegesi erhabaxa kwiHlabathi eliPhuhlayo.”

• Ukufikeleleka kwexabiso kwiiMarike ezisakhulayo:Kwimimandla efana ne-Southeast Asia, i-Afrika, kunye ne-Latin America, ii-EV zaseNtshona zihlala zithengiswa ngexabiso eliphantsi kakhulu. I-IEA iphawula ukuba iimpawu zaseTshayina zibonelela ngeemodeli ezingabizi kakhulu eziya kuvumela la mazwe ukuba adlule "kwisigaba se-ICE" sophuhliso, atshintshele ngqo kwi-mobility yombane.
• Iikhonkco zexabiso ezikwindawo ethile:Esi sigwebo sigxininisa ukubaluleka kokuba iinkampani zaseTshayina zakhe iifektri kwezi ndawo, zidale imisebenzi kwaye zidlulisele ulwazi, nto leyo eqinisa isiphumo sehlabathi se-"EV Catalyst".

9. Uzinzo kunye noHlalutyo loMjikelo woBomi (LCA)

Inxalenye ebalulekileyo yesigwebo se-IEA sango-2026 kukujonga nzulu impembelelo ye-EVs eziveliswe eTshayina kwindalo esingqongileyo.

9.1 Iphulo le-“Zero-Carbon Factory”

Ingxelo ye-IEA inika idatha ebonisa ukuba amandla ekhabhoni emveliso ye-EV yaseTshayina ayehla ngokukhawuleza.

• Amandla Aluhlaza Emveliso:Iinkampani ezinkulu zeebhetri zaseTshayina ezifana neCATL kunye neBYD ziya ziqinisa amandla eefektri zazo ezinkulu ngamandla omoya kunye nelanga kwindawo yazo. I-IEA iphawula ukuba ezinye zezi zakhiwo ngoku zifikelela kwinqanaba le-"Net-Zero", nto leyo ephelisa ingxoxo yokuba ii-EV zaseTshayina "zithutha ukukhutshwa komoya ukusuka kumbhobho wasemva ukuya kwi-smokestack."
• Ukusebenza kakuhle kwezinto:Inkqubela phambili ekusetyenzisweni kwakhona nasekufumaneni izimbiwa ezibalulekileyo eTshayina zigqanyiswa njengesiseko sobugcisa esinciphisa umngcipheko wokusingqongileyo wesithuthi ngasinye esiveliswayo.

9.2 "Ipaspoti yebhetri" kunye nokungafihlisi

Isigwebo se-IEA sixhasa ukuqaliswa kwe-"Battery Passport" kwihlabathi liphela—isibini sedijithali sebhetri nganye elandela imvelaphi yayo, i-carbon footprint, kunye nomxholo ophinda usetyenziswe.

• Ukuseta uMgangatho weHlabathi:Ingxelo iphawula ukuba iinkampani zaseTshayina ziqala ukusebenzisa ezi zixhobo zokungafihlisi nto, nto leyo eya kuba yimfuneko ekugcineni ukufikelela kwimarike kwi-EU naseMntla Melika njengoko imithetho emitsha yokusingqongileyo iqala ukusebenza.

(Ukuqhubeka nobunzulu obungakumbi: Isicwangciso se-IEA sika-2026-2035, Impembelelo yoQoqosho olukhulu, kunye neSigqibo sokugqibela…)

10. I-IEA's STEPS kunye ne-APS Scenarios: Indima yeTshayina kwiMephu yeNdlela yeHlabathi

Ingxelo ye-IEA ka-2026 isebenzisa iimeko ezimbini eziphambili ukuqikelela ikamva lotshintsho lwamandla: i-Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) kunye ne-Adclared Pledges Scenario (APS). Kuzo zombini, iTshayina yeyona nto iphambili.

10.1 Imeko yamanyathelo: Isiseko soLawulo

Kwimeko ye-STEPS, ejonga okuza kwenzeka ngokusekelwe kwimigaqo-nkqubo yangoku kuphela, i-IEA iqikelela ukuba iTshayina iya kuqhubeka nokubala ngaphezulu kwe-50% yesitokhwe se-EV sehlabathi ukuya kuthi ga kwi-2030 ubuncinane.

• Izinga lokwamkelwa "ngokwendalo":Ingxelo ithi nangona kungekho zikhuthazo zintsha, ukuqhubela phambili kwemveliso yaseTshayina kunye nokukhuphisana ngeendleko zezithuthi zayo kuya kuqhuba utshintsho "lwendalo" kwiimarike ezisakhulayo.
• Indima Yabakhweli Abanevili Ezimbini Nezintathu:Isigwebo se-IEA sigxininisa ukuba indima yeTshayina njengesixhobo sokuvuselela izinto yaqala ngokufakelwa kombane kwiimoto ezinevili ezimbini nezinevili ezintathu, icandelo eliqhumayo ngoku eIndiya nakuMzantsi-mpuma weAsia ngenxa yetekhnoloji kunye nezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo zaseTshayina.

10.2 Imeko ye-APS: Ukufikelela kwiNjongo "engangenisi Net"

Kwimeko ye-APS, ecinga ukuba bonke oorhulumente bayahlangabezana nezithembiso zabo zokutshintsha kwemozulu, i-IEA iphawula ukuba ihlabathi kufuneka lifikelele kwinqanaba apho ama-60% azo zonke iintengiso zeemoto zisebenza ngombane ngo-2030.

• Igalelo leTshayina kwiinjongo zeHlabathi:Ingxelo ibala ukuba iTshayina kuphela koqoqosho olukhulu olukwindlela egqithileyo kwiinjongo zayo ze-APS. Ukufikelela kwayo kwangoko kwiinjongo zasekhaya kuyivumela ukuba "ithumele ngaphandle i-decarbonization" kwamanye amazwe, inceda ihlabathi ukuba livale umsantsa phakathi kwentetho kunye nenyaniso.

11. Uhlalutyo lwezoqoqosho olukhulu: "Uguquko olutsha lwemizi-mveliso"

Isigwebo se-IEA sidlula amandla okuhlalutya ubutyebi bezizwe. Isiphelo sesokuba utshintsho lwe-EV lolona tshintsho lubalulekileyo kwezoshishino ukusukela oko kwaqanjwa umgca wokuhlanganisa.

11.1 Utshintsho kwiNkunzi yeMveliso yeHlabathi

I-IEA inika idatha malunga notyalo-mali oluyinkunzi kwicandelo le-EV.

• Ukugxila kutyalo-mali:Ngowama-2024 nangowama-2025, ngaphezulu kwe-65% yotyalo-mali lwehlabathi kwiifektri ezinkulu zebhetri kunye nemigca yemveliso ye-EV yenzeka eTshayina. Oku kudale "iGravity Well" yobuchwephesha kwezoshishino okunzima ukubaleka kwezinye iindawo.
• "Ukuvuselelwa kwemizi-mveliso" yaseNtshona:Ingxelo igxininisa ukuba amazwe aseNtshona azama ukutsala utyalo-mali lwaseTshayina ukuze aqalise amashishini awo asekhaya. I-IEA ayikuboni oku njengokulahlekelwa bubukhosi, kodwa njengokudluliselwa kobuchwepheshe okuyimfuneko ukuqinisekisa ukuba kwamkelwa kwihlabathi liphela.

11.2 Impembelelo kwiMalinganiso yoRhwebo lweHlabathi

Isigwebo se-IEA sibonisa ukuba intsalela yorhwebo lweemoto itshintsha ngokupheleleyo.

• I-China njengelizwe elithumela ixabiso kwamanye amazwe:Okokuqala ngqa, iTshayina ithumela ngaphandle izinto zeemoto ezixabisa kakhulu (iibhetri, ii-semiconductors, iinkqubo ezikrelekrele) kunokuba ithumela ngaphandle. Ingxelo iphawula ukuba oku kuyayitshintsha ngokusisiseko ubudlelwane bezorhwebo phakathi kweTshayina kunye namazwe emveli afana neJamani neJapan.

12. Ukuntywila Okunzulu Kwezobugcisa: Iiteknoloji ezijongwa yi-IEA

Ingxelo ye-IEA ka-2026 igxininisa iziseko zobugcisa ezithile apho iTshayina ikhokela khona eli phulo.

12.1 I-Sodium-Ion kunye nokuphela kwexhala le-Lithium

I-IEA ichonga iibhetri zeSodium-ion njengesixhobo esilandelayo esiphambili sokwamkelwa ngobuninzi.

• Ukuphula i-Lithium Bottleneck:Ngokunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwi-lithium, iteknoloji yeSodium-ion (eqalwe kwimveliso enkulu ziinkampani zaseTshayina ezifana neHiNa Battery kunye neBYD) yehlisa iindleko zokungena kwii-EVs nangakumbi.
• Ilungele "iHlabathi liphela":Ingxelo iphawula ukuba ukhuseleko lweSodium-ion kunye neprofayili yeendleko zenza ukuba ibe bubuchwepheshe obufanelekileyo kwiimarike ezinkulu zasezidolophini zaseAfrika naseMzantsi Asia, apho ixabiso lingumqobo ophambili wokwamkelwa.

12.2 Isithuthi-ukuya-Kuyo Yonke Into (V2X) kunye neGridi ekrelekrele

Isigwebo se-IEA sigxininisa abaqhubi beenqwelo-moya ze-V2X baseTshayina “kwiSixeko Siphela”.

• Isithuthi esiDibeneyo seGrid:Ngowama-2026, amawaka ezithuthi kwizixeko ezifana neShenzhen athatha inxaxheba ekulinganiseni umthwalo ngokuzenzekelayo. I-IEA ithi obu buchwephesha busisiseko se-"Smart Energy Society," apho imoto ingasasebenzisi amandla, kodwa ingumphathi osebenzayo wegridi.

13. Izifundo zeMeko yeSithili: "Impembelelo yeTshayina" esebenzayo

Ingxelo ye-IEA inika umbono ocacileyo ngendlela indima yeTshayina njengomgqugquzeli edlala ngayo kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo.

13.1 UMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia: Ukwanda kwe-ASEAN

EThailand nase-Indonesia, i-"China Catalyst" ikhokelele ekonyukeni kwentengiso yee-EV ngama-200% kwiminyaka emibini nje kuphela.

• Imveliso Yasekhaya:I-IEA iphawula ukuba ngokwakha iifektri zasekuhlaleni, iinkampani zaseTshayina ziyayidlula irhafu kwaye zidala "i-Regional EV Hub" etsala abanye ababoneleli behlabathi.
• Ukubekwa emgangathweni:Ukwamkelwa kwemigangatho yokutshaja yaseTshayina kunye noyilo lweqonga kwi-ASEAN kudala imakethi emanyeneyo eyenza kube lula ukwandiswa kwengingqi kubo bonke abadlali be-EV.

13.2 UMbindi Mpuma: Umdlalo Wokwahlukahlukana Kwamandla

E-UAE naseSaudi Arabia, ii-EV zaseTshayina ziba yindlela ekhethwayo yokutshintshela kuqoqosho olungelulo olweoyile.

• Ukutshaja okunamandla aphezulu:Ingxelo ye-IEA igxininisa ukuba ubushushu obugqithisileyo baseMbindi Mpuma bube yindawo yokuvavanya iinkqubo zolawulo lobushushu baseTshayina, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba ii-EV zinokusebenza ngokuthembekileyo nakwiindawo ezinzima kakhulu.

14. I-Geopolitics: Umngcipheko Wokudityaniswa KweeNjongo Zemozulu Zehlabathi

Isigqibo se-IEA siquka isilumkiso esiqatha malunga neengozi zemarike ye-EV yehlabathi eqhekekileyo.

14.1 Ixabiso Lokukhusela

Ingxelo ibala ukuba ukuba i-US kunye ne-EU ziyakwazi ukwahlulahlula uthungelwano lwazo lokuhambisa izinto oluvela eTshayina, ixabiso lee-EV kwihlabathi liphela linokunyuka ngama-25-30% ngo-2030.

• Ukwamkelwa Komntwana Olibazisekileyo:Oku kunyuswa kwamaxabiso kusenokwenzeka ukuba kulibazise "iNgcebiso" yokwamkelwa ngokubanzi ngeminyaka emi-3-5, nto leyo enokubangela ukuba kube nzima ukuhlangabezana neenjongo zeSivumelwano saseParis.
• Imakethi "eBifurcated":I-IEA yoyika ihlabathi elineenkqubo ezimbini ezahlukeneyo ze-EV—enye ekhokelwa yiTshayina nenye ekhokelwa yiNtshona—ezingenazo iindlela zokusebenzisana, nto leyo enyusa iindleko kubavelisi kunye nobunzima kubathengi.

14.2 Indlela eya “kwiNtsebenziswano yeHlabathi”

I-Arhente ye-IEA icebisa "uBudlelwane boKhuseleko lweZimbiwa" oluquka iTshayina, olugxile kumaxabiso acacileyo kunye nokufunyanwa kweenkonzo zokuziphatha endaweni yokukhutshwa ngaphandle ngokupheleleyo. Isigqibo sesokuba ingxaki yemozulu ingxamisekile kakhulu kwimfazwe yorhwebo olupheleleyo kwicandelo lobuchwepheshe obuluhlaza.

(Siqhubeka namacandelo okugqibela: Impembelelo yoQoqosho olukhulu, Indima yoMveliso oBukrelekrele, kunye neSigqibo…)

15. Impembelelo kwiMarike yezeMisebenzi yeHlabathi: "Isixhobo soKhuthazo lweZakhono"

Inxalenye ebalulekileyo kodwa edla ngokunganakwa kwisigqibo se-IEA yindlela iTshayina ekhuthaza ngayo utshintsho lwehlabathi kubasebenzi beemoto. Utshintsho oluvela kwinjini yokutsha yangaphakathi ukuya kwisithuthi sombane alukokutshintsha nje kwiindawo ezithile, lutshintsho ebantwini.

15.1 Umngeni wokuFudukiswa nokuFundiswa kwezakhono ngokutsha

Ingxelo ye-IEA igxininisa ukuba izikolo zeemoto zaseTshayina kunye neefektri ziphuhlise "iBlueprint for EV Labor."

• Injineli yeSoftware-Hardware Hybrid:Impumelelo yeTshayina yakhelwe kwisizukulwana esitsha sabasebenzi abakhululekileyo ekubhaleni iikhowudi njengoko bekhululekile ekuhlanganiseni oomatshini. I-IEA iphawula ukuba abavelisi baseYurophu naseMelika ngoku bajonge kwi-"Shenzhen Model" yoqeqesho lomsebenzi ukuze baphinde baxhobise abasebenzi babo.
• Iinguqu zomsebenzi kwihlabathi liphela:Njengoko iinkampani zaseTshayina zakha iifektri eHungary, eBrazil, naseThailand, zithumela olu qeqesho kwamanye amazwe, zidala iqela leetalente zehlabathi elikwaziyo ukuthetha ulwimi lokuhamba ngombane.

15.2 Ukuphakama "kweNgcali yeDijithali"

Kwixesha lokwenziwa kwezinto ngobuchule, umsebenzi wendabuko womgca wokuhlanganisa uthatyathelw’ indawo yi-“Digital Artisan”—abasebenzi abalawula iinqanawa zeerobhothi kwaye basebenzisa i-AI ukulawula umgangatho. Isigqibo se-IEA kukuba ukukhokela kweTshayina kule “Intelligent Manufacturing” sisiseko sobugcisa esiya kuchaza ikamva lokhuphiswano lwezoshishino lwehlabathi.

16. Iinkqubo zeNdalo ezintsha: iShenzhen vs. iSilicon Valley

Uhlalutyo lwe-IEA luthelekisa amaziko ehlabathi okuvelisa izinto ezintsha ze-EV.

• IShenzhen: Ikomkhulu le-Hardware Iteration:Ingxelo incoma “i-Hardware Ecosystem” yaseShenzhen, apho iprototype inokwakhiwa kwaye ivavanywe ngexesha elifutshane kunexesha elithathwayo kwiindawo zezithuthi zemveli. Esi santya sokuphindaphinda sichongwa njenge “Secret Sauce” yeChina Catalyst.
• ISilicon Valley: Isoftware Vanguard:Nangona i-US ikhokela kwisoftware kunye ne-AI, i-IEA iphawula ukuba "Umsantsa Uyavalwa." Iinkampani zaseTshayina ziyanda ukudibanisa i-AI ephucukileyo kwizithuthi zazo ngexabiso eliphantsi, nto leyo ezisa "amanqanaba eSilicon Valley" yobukrelekrele kwimarike enkulu.

17. Iingcebiso zoBuchule ze-IEA zika-2026 zooRhulumente

Esi sigwebo siphetha ngeseti "yezinto eziza kwenziwa" kubaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo yehlabathi ukuba basebenzise iChina Catalyst ngelixa benciphisa iingozi.

17.1 Ukwakha iziseko zophuhliso “zokufaka nokudlala”

I-IEA icebisa ukuba oorhulumente basebenzise imodeli ethi “Universal Access” yokuhlawulisa, ephenjelelwa kakhulu yimigangatho yesizwe saseTshayina.

• Ukususa Imiqobo Yemarike:Imigaqo-nkqubo kufuneka iqinisekise ukuba nayiphi na i-EV inokuhlawulisa nakwesiphi na isikhululo ngendlela enye yokuhlawula, inqanaba lokusebenzisana elisele liqhelekile kwizixeko zaseTshayina ezikwinqanaba lokuqala.

17.2 Ukukhuthaza "iiNgxowa-mali zoNikezelo oluSetyhula"

Oorhulumente bayacelwa ukuba bakhuthaze ukusetyenziswa kwakhona kweebhetri kwasekuqaleni.

• Ukufunda kwiNkokeli:I-IEA ikhomba imithetho yaseTshayina yokulandelela nokuhlaziya iibhetri njenge "Gold Standard" yehlabathi. Ngokudala imakethi yesibini yezimbiwa ezibalulekileyo, amazwe anokunciphisa ukuthembela kwawo kwimigodi emitsha aze anciphise impembelelo yawo kwindalo esingqongileyo.

18. Ikamva leeNqwelo-mafutha: Indima yeTshayina ekuFakeleni umbane kwicandelo "elinzima"

Ingxelo ye-IEA ka-2026 ibonisa utshintsho ekugxileni ekuthuthweni okunzima.

• Ukutshintshana kweebhetri kwiilori:Ingxelo igxininisa iinkqubo zovavanyo eziphumeleleyo zaseTshayina zokutshintshana kweebhetri zeelori ezinkulu. Kwizibuko nakwiindawo zemigodi kulo lonke elaseTshayina, iilori zombane ngoku zisebenza iiyure ezingama-24 ngosuku, iintsuku ezisixhenxe ngeveki, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba kwanawona macandelo anzima ukususa i-carbon asengozini ye-"China Catalyst."
• Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweTekhnoloji eNzima:Iinkampani ezifana neBYD kunye neSany sele zithumela iibhasi zombane kunye neelori kumazwe angaphezu kwama-50. Isigqibo se-IEA sesokuba ukufakelwa kombane kwezixhobo zehlabathi kuya kukhokelwa ziinkampani ezifanayo zaseTshayina ezazilawula imarike yeemoto zabakhweli.

19. Ukwenziwa kokugqibela: iTshayina njenge "Green Heartland" yenkulungwane yama-21

I-IEA ethi “Global EV Outlook 2026” ingaphezulu nje kwengxelo; iluphawu lokwamkelwa komyalelo omtsha wehlabathi. Isigqibo sesokuba iTshayina ibe “yiGreen Heartland”—indawo ephambili apho utshintsho lwamandla lwehlabathi kufuneka ludlule khona.

19.1 Indida yokukhetha

Ihlabathi lijongene nesiphithiphithi: kufuneka likhethe phakathi kokukhuselwa kwemizi-mveliso kunye nesantya sotshintsho lwamandla. Isigwebo se-IEA sibonisa ukuba oku kulandelayo kuyimfuneko yehlabathi ekufuneka ithathe indawo. Indima yeTshayina njengesishukumisi ayisosisongelo sokuba ingasuswa, kodwa ngamandla afanele asetyenziswe ukuze kuzuze iplanethi.

19.2 Isiphelo "esingenakuguqulwa"

Njengoko sijonge phambili ku-2035, i-IEA iqikelela ukuba i-"China Catalyst" iya kukhokelela kwihlabathi apho ukuhamba kombane kuyinto eqhelekileyo. Injini yokutsha yangaphakathi iya kuba yintsalela yexesha elidlulileyo, kwaye inkqubo yamandla yehlabathi iya kuba ikhuselekile ngakumbi, isebenze kakuhle, kwaye ihlale ixesha elide.

• Isigqibo Sokugqibela:I-China ayiphumelelanga nje kuphela kumdyarho wokwakha i-EV engcono kakhulu; yakha ibala lomdyarho weenqwelo-moya kwihlabathi liphela. Ngokunciphisa iindleko, ukumisela imigangatho, nokubonisa ukuba ikamva elingenakukhupha umbane, i-China izalisekise indima yayo njengesiqalelo esibalulekileyo kwihlabathi elicocekileyo nelinezixhobo zombane ngakumbi.

Itheyibhile yeDatha yesishwankathelo: Isigqibo se-IEA kwi-China Catalyst (2026)

20. Isiphelo: Ukusa kweNkulungwane yoMbane

Isigwebo se-International Energy Agency sika-2026 siphawula ukuphela kwesigaba "sokwamkela kwangoko" kunye nokuqala kwexesha "lemarike enkulu". Indima yeTshayina njengesixhobo sokukhuthaza ihlabathi ngoku yinyani yembali, exhaswa yidatha kuwo onke amazwekazi. Ukususela ezitalatweni zaseShanghai ukuya kwiindlela ezinkulu zaseYurophu nakwizixeko eziphuhlayo zaseMzantsi weHlabathi, i-"China Catalyst" ibonakala kuzo zonke izikhululo zokutshaja kunye nayo yonke imoto yombane.

Umngeni kwihlabathi liphela ngoku ngulowo wokulungelelanisa nokulungelelanisa. Njengoko ingxelo ye-IEA iphetha, ukutshintshela kwikamva lamandla azinzileyo akusekho ngumbuzo wokuba "ukuba," kodwa "kungakanani na ukukhawuleza." Kwaye eso santya silawulwa bubuchule bokuvelisa, ubuchule bobuchwephesha, kunye nombono weqhinga le-EV catalyst ephambili kwihlabathi. Inkulungwane yombane ifikile, kwaye intliziyo yayo ibetha eTshayina.

21. Umngcelele weTekhnoloji 2026-2035: Igagasi elilandelayo le-China Catalyst

Isigqibo se-IEA sikwajonga phambili "kwisizukulwana esilandelayo" setekhnoloji esele siyityalile iTshayina, nto leyo eya kukhawulezisa ukwamkelwa kwehlabathi liphela.

21.1 Urhwebo Oluqinileyo: Uphuhliso Lokhuseleko Noluhlu Lweentaba

Ngowama-2026, iibhetri ezisemgangathweni ophantsi ziye zatshintsha ukusuka kwiiprototypes ukuya kwiimoto zemveliso eziphezulu eTshayina. I-IEA iqikelela ukuba kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo iTshayina iya kukhokela utshintsho oluya kwiibhetri ezisemgangathweni ophantsi (ASSB).

• Impembelelo yeHlabathi:Iibhetri ze-Solid-state zisusa iingozi zomlilo ezinxulumene nee-electrolytes ezingamanzi kwaye zibonelela ngoxinano lwamandla olunokuphinda kabini uluhlu lwee-EV zangoku. Ingxelo ye-IEA iphawula ukuba ulawulo lwaseTshayina kwi-"Solid-State Supply Chain" luya kuba sisixhobo esilandelayo esiphambili, okwenza ii-EV zibe lukhetho oluphezulu nakwiinkqubo ezifuna kakhulu ixesha elide.

21.2 Ulawulo lwaMandla oluNgqondi (IEM) kunye nokutshaja okuqhutywa yi-AI

Ukuhlanganiswa koBukrelekrele boBugcisa boBugcisa kwinkqubo yokutshaja sisiseko sobugcisa i-IEA esibona njengomqhubi ophambili wokusebenza kakuhle.

• Ukutshaja okuxelwe kwangaphambili:Iinkampani zaseTshayina zisebenzisa i-AI eqikelela imithwalo yegridi kunye nokuziphatha komsebenzisi, okuvumela "uhlengahlengiso oluncinci" kwisantya sokutshaja olugcina amandla kwaye lukhusele ubomi bebhetri.
• Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-"Smart Grid":Ingxelo ye-IEA ijonge ikamva apho iTshayina ingathumeli ngaphandle nje kuphela izixhobo, kodwa nee-"Energy Operating Systems" eziqhutywa yi-AI ezilawula lonke uthungelwano lwelizwe, inqanaba elitsha lempembelelo yesicwangciso.

22. Uhlalutyo lweMeko yezeNdalo: Iindlela Ezintathu zeMarike yeHlabathi

Isigwebo se-IEA siphetha ngokubonisa iindlela ezintathu ezinokubakho zezopolitiko kwimarike ye-EV yehlabathi ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2035.

22.1 Imeko 1: "Ukukhawulezisa Okuvulekileyo" (Indlela Efanelekileyo)

Kule meko, imiqobo yorhwebo iyancitshiswa, kwaye imigangatho yehlabathi iyahambelana. Iifemu zaseTshayina zisebenzisana nee-OEM zaseNtshona ukwakha imixokelelwane yokubonelela ngeenkonzo zasekuhlaleni.

• Isiphumo:Ukwamkelwa kwihlabathi liphela kufikelela kwi-80% ngo-2035, kwaye ihlabathi lihlangabezana ngempumelelo nomgomo wemozulu we-1.5°C. Le ndlela iphucula isiphumo se-"China Catalyst".

22.2 Imeko 2: “Imarike Ebini” (Indlela Yangoku)

Iirhafu eziphezulu kunye neenkxalabo zokhuseleko lwedatha zikhokelela kwiinkqubo ezimbini ezahlukeneyo ze-EV: imakethi "esemgangathweni waseTshayina" kunye nemakethi "esemgangathweni waseNtshona".

• Isiphumo:Iindleko zisaqhubeka ziphezulu, kwaye ukwamkelwa kuyalibaziseka kwiindawo ezininzi. I-"China Catalyst" isenamandla kwiHlabathi liphela, kodwa impembelelo yayo eNtshona ayisebenzi kakuhle, nto leyo ekhokelela ekungafikelelini kweenjongo zemozulu.

22.3 Imeko 3: “Ubuzwe obunezixhobo” (Indlela yeNgxabano)

Izizwe ziphumeza ulawulo oluqinileyo lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kwizimbiwa ezibalulekileyo kunye netekhnoloji.

• Isiphumo:Utshintsho lwehlabathi luyama. Ixabiso leebhetri liyaphakama, kwaye ihlabathi lihlala lixhomekeke kumafutha efosili kwisizukulwana esilandelayo. I-IEA ilumkisa ukuba le meko yeyona ngxaki inkulu kwimpumelelo yoluntu kwinkulungwane yama-21.

23. Amagama Okugqibela: Uxanduva lweCatalyst

Inqaku lokugqibela le-IEA kwisigwebo sika-2026 libizo lokuba noxanduva. Njengesishukumisi sehlabathi, izigqibo zeTshayina malunga nokuzinza, abasebenzi, kunye nokwabelana ngetekhnoloji ziya kulawula isantya sotshintsho lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela.

• Ixesha Elitsha Lentsebenziswano:I-Arhente ithi utshintsho lukhulu kakhulu ukuba naliphi na ilizwe lingakwazi ukuluphatha lodwa, kodwa kukwangxamisekile kakhulu ukulinda ulungelelwaniso olugqibeleleyo lwezopolitiko. Indima yeTshayina kukuqhubeka nokutyhala imida yoko kunokwenzeka, ngelixa indima yehlabathi ikwakukufumana indlela yokudibanisa olo tshintsho kuqoqosho lwehlabathi oluhlukeneyo noluzinzileyo.

I-"China Catalyst" ayiseyiyo ingcamango; ngamandla asisiseko aqhuba ihlabathi ukuya kwikamva elicocekileyo nelinombane ngakumbi. Isigqibo se-IEA sika-2026 sixwebhu lwembali oluthatha umzuzu apho ihlabathi laqonda ukuba utshintsho lombane aluzange luqale nje, kodwa ngoku lwalungenakuthintelwa, ngenxa yombono kunye namandla okuvelisa amandla e-EV ephambili kwihlabathi.

24. Isihlomelo soBugcisa: Ukungena nzulu kwiinkcukacha zobunjineli ze-"China Catalyst"

Ukuze siqonde ngokucacileyo inkokheli yezobuchwepheshe echongiweyo yi-IEA, makhe sihlolisise imilinganiselo ethile yobunjineli ebeke umgangatho wehlabathi ukususela ngo-2026.

24.1 IiMetriki zePowertrain ezisebenzayo kakhulu

Ii-OEM zaseTshayina zinyuse "ukusebenza kakuhle kwenkqubo" kombane (iBattery to Wheel) ukuya kuthi ga kwi-90%.

• Idrayivu yoMbane eNye:Ukuhlanganiswa kwe-motor, i-inverter, i-gearbox, kunye ne-DC/DC converter kwi-single, compact housing kuye kwehlisa ubunzima kunye nomthamo nge-15-20%. Ingxelo ye-IEA iphawula ukuba ezi nkqubo zokuqhuba ze-“8-in-1″ okanye “10-in-1″, eziqalwe ziinkampani ezifana ne-BYD kunye ne-GAC, ziyafundwa kwaye zilingiswa ziinjineli zehlabathi ukuphucula uluhlu lwezithuthi ngaphandle kokwandisa ubungakanani bebhetri.
• Itekhnoloji yokuGqibezela iHairpin:Ukusetyenziswa kwee-“hairpin” windings ezineentambo ezisicaba kwiimoto zombane kuye kwaba ngumgangatho eTshayina, kubonelela ngokusebenza ngcono kobushushu kunye noxinano oluphezulu lwe-torque xa kuthelekiswa nee-round-wire windings zendabuko.

24.2 Iinkqubo zoLawulo loBushushu obuPhambili (i-TMS)

Ukulawula ubushushu yeyona nto ibalulekileyo ukuze ibhetri ihlale ixesha elide kwaye itshaje ngokukhawuleza.

• Ubungakanani bePump yoBushushu:Ngowama-2026, neemoto zombane zaseTshayina eziqalayo ziya kuba zixhotyiswe ngeenkqubo eziphambili zokumpompa ubushushu ezikhupha ubushushu obumdaka kwibhetri nakwizinto ze-elektroniki ukuze zifudumale ikhabini, zigcine umgama ongaphezulu ukuya kuthi ga kwi-20% kwiimeko zasebusika.
• Ukupholisa/Ukufudumeza ngokuthe ngqo:Ukupholisa ngokuthe ngqo kweeseli zebhetri — i-coolant ejikeleza kwiipleyiti ezibandayo ezidibana neseli nganye — kuye kwaba yindlela eqhelekileyo yoyilo lweepakethi zokutshaja ngokukhawuleza zaseTshayina. Zidibene noyilo lwe-cell-to-pack (CTP) olususa ii-module housing, ukupholisa ngokuthe ngqo kubonelela nge-thermal headroom efunekayo yokutshaja ngokukhawuleza kwe-4C-6C ngaphandle kokukhawulezisa ukuguga kweseli. I-loop efanayo, eguqulwa yi-heat pump, ifudumeza ipakethi ebusika, inciphisa amaxesha okutshaja kwaye igcine uluhlu xa amaqondo obushushu ehla ngaphantsi kwe-frozen.

Ulawulo lobushushu lukwalixesha lokutshaja.Iipleyiti ezifanayo ezibandayo ngexesha lokutshaja ngokukhawuleza kwe-4C zilungisa ipakethi ngaphambi kokuba iseshoni iqale, ukuze ibhetri ifike kwitshaja sele ikwifestile yayo yobushushu obufanelekileyo. Ii-OEM zaseTshayina zilinganise olu hlobo lokuziphatha "lokulungisa indlela eya kwitshaja" ngokudibanisa ukuhamba, zinciphisa amaxesha okutshaja asebenzayo ngemizuzu eli-10-15 kwiimeko zasebusika - inzuzo yokulula ebonakala ngokuthe ngqo kwidatha yokwaneliseka kwabathengi be-IEA kwaye idibene kwiiseshoni ezingamashumi ezigidi ezenzeka kwihlabathi liphela yonke imihla.

24.3 Iziseko zokutshaja: Inkqubo ye-800V Ecosystem

Uvavanyo lobuchwephesha lwe-IEA ludlulela ngaphaya kwesithuthi ukuya kwi-ecosystem yokutshaja eyixhasayo. Iinethiwekhi zokutshaja zaseTshayina zikhokela ihlabathi kwinqanaba loxinano kunye namandla: ii-superchargers ezipholileyo ezinomthamo we-megawatt, ii-stalls ezikhawulezayo ezihambelana ne-800V, kunye nomgangatho wesizwe (GB/T) ngoku ogubungela ukutshaja kweendlela ezimbini. Ingxelo ka-2026 ithi olu qalo lweziseko luqale ngokususa umqobo "wokuxhalaba kokutshaja" osacinezela ukusetyenziswa kwiimarike ezihamba kancinci - umjikelo olungileyo apho ukusetyenziswa okuphezulu kuxhasa ukwakhiwa okungakumbi.

Izixhobo zokutshaja zaseTshayina zikwabeka umlinganiselo weendleko: ngokwandisa iimodyuli zamandla zeSiC kunye neendibano zekhebula ezipholisiweyo ngolwelo ngomlinganiselo, abavelisi baseTshayina baye banyusa ixabiso lokutshaja ngokukhawuleza kakhulu malunga nama-40% ukusukela ngo-2023, nto leyo eyenza ukuba ishishini leenethiwekhi ezixineneyo zasezidolophini lisebenze okokuqala.

I-China Catalyst, eQinisekisiweyo

Xa zizonke, imilinganiselo yobunjineli kwesi sihlomelo ichaza isiphumo esiphambili se-IEA: I-China ayisiyo nje imakethi enkulu ye-EV - yindawo yokujonga yobuchwephesha apho zonke ezinye iimakethi zilinganiswa khona. Ukusebenza kakuhle kwe-Powertrain ngaphezulu kwe-90%, iimpompo zobushushu ezifumaneka kuyo yonke indawo, iipakethi zokutshaja ngokukhawuleza ezipholileyo ngqo, kunye nenkqubo yeziseko ezingundoqo evala loo mda azizo zinto ziphunyeziweyo kodwa zizinto ezicwangciswe yinkqubo ukusuka ekuqaleni ukuya ekupheleni.

Isiphelo: I-Catalyst Iba Yimigangatho

Isigqibo se-IEA kukuqaphela inyani: indlela ekhawulezayo yokufakelwa kombane kwihlabathi liphela ihamba ngobunjineli baseTshayina. Iiteknoloji ezimiselweyo eTshayina — ii-8-in-1 drives, ii-hairpin motors, ukupholisa ngqo, ukutshaja kwe-800V — ziya zisiba ziindlela ezingasebenziyo kwihlabathi liphela kungengenxa yemiyalelo yomgaqo-nkqubo kodwa ngenxa yokuba zingcono kwaye zingabizi kakhulu. Kurhulumente, abenzi beemoto, kunye nabaqhubi bokutshaja kwihlabathi liphela, impembelelo yesicwangciso ayicacanga: indlela esetyenziswayo itshintshile, kwaye eyona ndlela isebenzayo yokuyifumana yintsebenziswano, hayi ukuhlaziya.

Izinto ezibalulekileyo ekufuneka ziqwalaselwe

• Iinjini zamandla zaseTshayina zidlula ukusebenza kakuhle kwenkqubo nge-90%, nto leyo ebeka umlinganiselo wobunjineli behlabathi.
• Iimpompo zobushushu kunye nokupholisa ulwelo ngqo ziqhelekile kwiimoto zombane zaseTshayina ezikumgangatho ofanayo, zigcina ubushushu basebusika kwaye zivumela ukutshaja okukhawulezileyo kwe-4C+.
• Inkqubo yokutshaja ye-800V yaseTshayina — ekhokelwa zizixhobo ezipholileyo ezingamanzi nezikwaziyo ukukhupha ii-megawatt — yeyona ixineneyo nengabizi kakhulu kwihlabathi.

Qhagamshelana ne-MIDA Power

Njengomvelisi waseTshayina osembindini wale nkqubo yendalo, i-MIDA Power ibonelela ngeetshaja ezikhawulezayo ze-DC ezihambelana ne-800V, ii-supercharger ezipholisiweyo ngolwelo, kunye neenkqubo ezidityanisiweyo ze-BESS ezisetyenziswa ziimarike zehlabathi ukuphinda inzuzo yokutshaja yaseTshayina. Ukuze ufumane iinkcukacha, imilinganiselo, okanye ikowuteshini, nxibelelana neqela lethu.