Umbiko uthe ngo-2030, izimoto zikagesi zizobalelwa ku-86% wesabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke.
Ngokusho kombiko weRocky Mountain Institute (RMI), izimoto zikagesi kulindeleke ukuthi zibambe isabelo semakethe yomhlaba wonke esingu-62-86% ngo-2030. Izindleko zamabhethri e-lithium-ion kulindeleke ukuthi zehle zisuka ku-$151 nge-kilowatt-hora ngo-2022 ziye ku-$60-90 nge-kilowatt-hora. I-RMI ithi isidingo sezimoto ezisebenzisa uwoyela emhlabeni wonke sikhuphuke kakhulu futhi sizokwehla kakhulu ekupheleni kwekhulu leminyaka. Imboni yezimoto zikagesi ayiyona into entsha ekukhuleni kokuthengisa eminyakeni embalwa edlule. Ngokusho kwe-International Energy Agency, u-14% wazo zonke izimoto ezithengisiwe ngo-2022 zizoba ngogesi, zisuka ku-9% ngo-2021 kanye no-5% kuphela ngo-2020.
Idatha yemibiko ikhombisa ukuthi izimakethe ezimbili ezinkulu zezimoto zikagesi emhlabeni, iShayina neNyakatho Yurophu, zihola kulokhu kwanda, kanti amazwe afana neNorway ahamba phambili ngesabelo semakethe yezimoto zikagesi esingu-71%. Ngo-2022, isabelo semakethe yezimoto zikagesi zaseShayina sasimi ku-27%, iYurophu simi ku-20.8%, kanye neMelika simi ku-7.2%. Izimakethe zezimoto zikagesi ezikhula ngokushesha zifaka i-Indonesia, i-India, neNew Zealand. Ngakho-ke yini eqhuba lokhu kwanda? Umbiko we-RMI ukhombisa ukuthi ezomnotho yizona ezishayelayo. Ngokuphathelene nezindleko eziphelele zobunikazi, ukulingana kwentengo nezimoto zezinjini zomlilo zangaphakathi kufeziwe, kanti izimakethe zomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi zifinyelele ukulingana kwentengo ngo-2030. I-BYD ne-Tesla sezivele zilinganise amanani ezimbangi zazo ezisebenzisa i-ICE. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuncintisana phakathi kwabakhiqizi bezimoto kusheshisa ushintsho, ngamabhethri ezimoto zikagesi anele kanye nezimboni zezimoto ezakhiwayo ukuqinisekisa ukutholakala okwanele ekupheleni kwekhulu leminyaka. E-United States, izikhuthazo ezivela kuMthetho Wokunciphisa Ukukhuphuka Kwentengo kahulumeni kaBiden kanye noMthetho Wengqalasizinda Wezinhlangothi Zombili nazo zivuse igagasi lokwakhiwa kwefektri kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha. Ngaphandle kwezinyathelo zenqubomgomo, amanani ebhethri ehle ngo-88% kusukela ngo-2010 njengoba ukuminyana kwamandla kuqhubeka nokukhula ngesilinganiso sonyaka esingu-6%. Ishadi elingezansi libonisa ukwehla okukhulu kwamanani ebhethri.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-RMI ibikezela ukuthi "isikhathi se-ICE" sesiphelile. Isidingo sezimoto ezisebenzisa uphethiloli safinyelela esicongweni ngo-2017 futhi besilokhu sehla ngesilinganiso sonyaka esingu-5%. I-RMI ibikezela ukuthi ngo-2030, isidingo sikaphethiloli ezimotweni ezisebenzisa uphethiloli sizokwehla ngamabhareli ayisigidi esingu-1 ngosuku, kanti isidingo sikaphethiloli somhlaba wonke sehla ngekota. Lona umbono omuhle wombiko ngalokho okungenzeka. Ngenkathi ucwaningo lwenza izibikezelo ezinesibindi ngekusasa, luphawula ukuthi amazinga okwamukelwa kwezimoto zikagesi angashintsha ngenxa yezici ezingalindelekile, njengokushintsha kwenqubomgomo yesikhathi esizayo, ukushintsha kwemizwa yabathengi, kanye nomehluko kwezenhlalo nezepolitiki kanye nezomnotho. Ukunemba kwalo mbiko akunakuqinisekiswa. Kungumbono omuhle kakhulu ngalokho okungenzeka.
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