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The report said that by 2030, electric vehicles will account for as much as 86% of the global market share
According to a report by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), electric vehicles are expected to capture 62-86% of the global market share by 2030. The cost of lithium-ion batteries is expected to fall from an average of $151 per kilowatt-hour in 2022 to $60-90 per kilowatt-hour. RMI states that global oil-based vehicle demand has peaked and will decline significantly by the end of the century. The electric vehicle industry is no stranger to sales growth over the past few years. According to the International Energy Agency, 14% of all cars sold in 2022 will be electric, up from 9% in 2021 and just 5% in 2020.
Report data indicates that the world’s two largest electric vehicle markets, China and Northern Europe, are spearheading this surge, with nations such as Norway leading the way with a 71% electric vehicle market share. In 2022, China’s electric vehicle market share stood at 27%, Europe’s at 20.8%, and America’s at 7.2%. The fastest-growing electric vehicle markets include Indonesia, India, and New Zealand. So what is driving this surge? RMI’s report indicates that economics is the new driver. In terms of total cost of ownership, price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles has been achieved, with global markets expected to reach price parity by 2030. BYD and Tesla have already matched the pricing of their ICE-powered competitors. Furthermore, competition among automakers is accelerating the shift, with sufficient electric vehicle battery and vehicle factories under construction to ensure ample supply by the end of the century. In the United States, incentives from the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan Infrastructure Law have also sparked a wave of factory construction and restructuring. Beyond policy measures, battery prices have fallen by 88% since 2010 as energy density continues to grow at an annual rate of 6%. The chart below illustrates the exponential decline in battery prices.
Furthermore, RMI predicts that the “ICE era” is coming to an end. Demand for gas-powered vehicles peaked in 2017 and has been declining at an annual rate of 5%. RMI projects that by 2030, demand for oil from gas-powered vehicles will fall by 1 million barrels per day, with global oil demand plummeting by a quarter. This is the report’s optimistic outlook on what is possible. While the study makes bold predictions about the future, it notes that electric vehicle adoption rates could fluctuate due to unforeseen factors, such as future policy changes, shifts in consumer sentiment, and sociopolitical and economic differences. The accuracy of this report cannot be guaranteed. It is a fairly optimistic outlook on what is possible.
Post time: Sep-13-2025
